UFC Fight Night: Regina Tarin vs Ernesta Kareckaite Preview & Prediction
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Flyweights collide in a last minute matchup, with Regina Tarin replacing Sofia Montenegro in an eleventh hour reshuffle to take on Ernesta Kareckiate at 125 pounds.
Regina Tarin vs Ernesta Kareckaite facts
What time are Regina Tarin and Ernesta Kareckaite expected to walk out?
Where is UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh? Arena CDMX, Mexico City, Mexico
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC Fight Night
What TV channel is UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh on? UK – TNT Sports / USA – Not televised
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh? UK – TNT Sports can stream the event online via the TNT Sports website and discovery+ / USA – Paramount+ & UFC Fight Pass
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh main card
Brandon Moreno vs Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight)
Marlon Vera vs David Martinez (Bantamweight)
Daniel Zellhuber vs King Green (Lightweight)
Edgar Chairez vs Felipe Bunes (Flyweight)
Imanol Rodriguez vs Kevin Borjas (Flyweight)
Santiago Luna vs Angel Pacheco (Bantamweight)
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs Kavanagh prelims
Ryan Gandra vs Jose Daniel Medina (Middleweight)
Ailin Perez vs Macy Chiasson (Women’s Bantamweight)
Cristian Quinonez vs Kris Moutinho (Bantamweight)
Douglas Silva de Andrade vs Javier Reyes (Featherweight)
Regina Tarin vs Ernesta Kareckaite (Catchweight - 130lbs)
Erik Silva vs Francis Marshall (Featherweight)
Damian Pinas vs Wesley Schultz (Middleweight)
Regina Tarin: Can "Kill Bill" produce a memorable debut on three days notice?
Stepping in for Sofia Montenegro at the eleventh hour, Regina Tarin (7-0), looks to be about as good a last minute replacement as one could hope to find at women's flyweight on paper. A former WWE tryout, the 21 year old "Kill Bill" is a knockout artist with six finishes in seven professional fights, scoring a thunderous first round KO in her most recent appearance in November. However, she's largely untested in terms of high level MMA competition, with her best win coming over PFL and TUF alum, Kaytlin Neil, in June of last year. While the Mexico City native has the aura of an undefeated fighter, it's also worth noting that she suffered a first round TKO defeat in her one and only amateur fight in 2022.
Ernesta Kareckaite: The Lithuanian prospect returns looking to push her UFC record above .500
One of the more unheralded prospects at women’s flyweight, Ernesta Kareckaite (6-1-1) will make her first walk to the cage since January 2025 on Saturday night. 1-1 against Nicolle Calliari and Dione Barbosa respectively since earning a contract on the Contender Series in 2023, inactivity has been somewhat of an issue for the Lithuanian; Kareckaite has fought just twice in that stretch. Big for the division at 5’9, the 27 year old is a rangy volume striker with solid cardio, although her nickname of “Heavy Handed” is somewhat bemusing in light of the fact that she’s scored just two finishes in eight professional fights to date.
Regina Tarin vs Ernesta Kareckaite prediction
Tarin looks to be an exciting prospect; her youth, high finish rate, and marketable aura indicates that she likely would have found her way to the UFC in one way or another at some point in the near future. She's undoubtedly a live dog here and will also have an adoring home crowd baying for her. Unfortunately for the 21 year old, this could well be a case of "too much, too soon."
Despite her limited activity since joining the promotion, Kareckaite looks to be a solid flyweight despite her lack of finishing potential; her win over Carli Judice on the Contender Series continues to age well in light of “Crispy’s” recent run of UFC success. Her sole loss is to Dione Barbosa, a standout grappler who has fought decent levels of competition throughout her career to date. Furthermore, Kareckaite had her moments in that bout, with many arguing that Barbosa’s hometown advantage was a factor in her earning the decision nod.
It says a lot to how highly Tarin is regarded - over perhaps, overhyped - considering that she's only a slight underdog despite taking this one on a week's notice; Kareckiate was a much bigger favorite over Sofia Montenegro even when "La Bruja" had the benefit of a full camp behind her. The Mexican striker has legitimate knockout power and could well win this if she’s able to get on the inside and unload something brutal on the Lithuanian in the pocket.
However, considering that nobody has successfully managed that to date and the exceedingly short notice nature of this match up, the safer bet is that Kareckiate leans on a pronounced edge in height and reach to win a volume striking battle and walks away with the decision.
Prediction: Ernesta Kareckiate to win by decision
