UFC 319: Tim Elliott vs Kai Asakura Preview & Prediction

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Rizin export and recent flyweight title challenger, Kai Asakura, looks to make a statement in his sophomore UFC bow against the returning and ever-game veteran, Tim Elliott.
Tim Elliott vs Kai Asakura facts
What time are Tim Elliott and Kai Asakura expected to walk out?
Where is UFC 319: Du Plessis vs Chimaev? United Center, Chicago, USA
Where can I get tickets for UFC 319: Du Plessis vs Chimaev? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC 319
What TV channel is UFC 319: Du Plessis vs Chimaev on? UK – TNT Sports / USA – ESPN+
Where can I stream UFC 319: Du Plessis vs Chimaev? UK – TNT Sports subscribers can stream the event online via the TNT Sports website and discovery+ / USA – ESPN+ & UFC Fight Pass
UFC 319: De Plessis vs Chimaev main card
Dricus du Plessis vs Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight)
Lerone Murphy vs Aaron Pico (Featherweight)
Geoff Neal vs Carlos Prates (Welterweight)
Jared Cannonier vs Michael Page (Middleweight)
Tim Elliott vs Kai Asakura (Flyweight)
UFC 319: De Plessis vs Chimaev prelims
Gerald Meerschaert vs Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight)
Baysangur Susurkaev vs Eric Nolan (Middleweight)
Jessica Andrade vs Loopy Godinez (Women’s Strawweight)
Chase Hooper vs Alexander Hernandez (Lightweight)
Edson Barboza vs Drakkar Klose (Lightweight)
Bryan Battle vs Nursulton Ruziboev (Middleweight)
Karine Silva vs Dione Barbosa (Women’s Flyweight)
Alibi Idiris vs Joseph Morales (Flyweight)
Tim Elliott: Returning after a near two-year absence, can Elliot play spoiler against one of the scariest power punchers that flyweight has to offer?
A crafty, well-rounded veteran with underrated grappling ability, Tim Elliott (21-13-1) has had one of the more bizarre career trajectories in UFC history. Washing out of the promotion in his first run with a record of 2-3, Elliott would go on to earn redemption by winning The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions in 2016, earning a shot at divisional GOAT, Demetrious Johnson, in the process. Coming up short to "Mighty Mouse" by decision, Elliott has gone 7-7 against a who's-who of the division since, earning a number of impressive victories but largely getting outclassed when faced with a notable step up in competition. He was last seen in action in December 2023, throttling Su Mudaerji unconscious with an arm-triangle choke.
Kai Asakura: Fresh off a debut defeat to current 125 pound kingpin, Alexandre Pantoja, Asakura looks to display the form that got him to the big leagues
A two-time Rizin bantamweight champion, Kai Asakura (21-5) announced himself by ending Kyoji Horiguchi's 13 fight winning streak in shocking fashion, knocking out the former UFC title challenger as a huge underdog in the Japanese promotion. A vicious power puncher, Asakura found himself thrown into the proverbial shark tank at 125 pounds in his very first UFC appearance, where he was matched against Alexandre Pantoja for the title. Despite rocking "The Cannibal" with a jumping knee in the opening exchanges, the Japanese fighter eventually succumbed to Pantoja's pressure, getting choked out in the second round. Returning for the first time since, he looks to erase the memories of his debut in what appears to be a tailor-made matchup for his style.
Tim Elliott vs Kai Asakura prediction
While Elliott always comes to fight, this looks to be Asakura's fight to lose.
While many fans were quick to label the Japanese fighter's debut defeat to Pantoja as the classic MMA fraud check, there's absolutely no shame in losing to the second greatest flyweight fighter in MMA history; he arguably performed better against "The Cannibal" than recent title challenger, Kai-Kara France. A former bantamweight, Asakura will also have a huge power and physicality advantage over a smaller opponent, one who is rapidly approaching his 39th birthday and is coming off a 20 month layoff.
Elliott is as crafty as they come and may very well have been able to pull off the upset in the earlier days of his career. Regrettably for the American, it's hard to see a realistic path to victory for him here now. While Asakura's brutal weight cut raises questions over his chin's integrity, Elliott has never been known for his power. His only chance to win is through his grappling, but that doesn't appear to be a probable outcome considering that Asakura largely demonstrated excellent takedown defense against the consensus best flyweight plying their in MMA today.
In short, the Rizin export wins in highlight reel fashion here. Asakura either sparks Elliott with a huge punch in the open or decimates him with a knee up the middle as the American shoots in for a takedown.
Prediction: Kai Asakura to win by knockout