UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi Preview & Prediction
A women’s strawweight rematch seven years in the making to open up the card, Ketlen Souza looks to avenge a regional defeat against fellow Brazilian Ariane Carnelossi.
Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi facts
What time are Ketlen Souza and Ariane Carnelossi expected to walk out?
Where is UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs Bonfim? Meta Apex, Enterprise, USA
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs Bonfim? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC Fight Night 278
What TV channel is UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs Bonfim on? UK – TNT Sports / USA – Paramount
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs Bonfim? UK – TNT Sports can stream the event online via the TNT Sports website and HBO Max / USA – Paramount+ & UFC Fight Pass
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs Bonfim main card
Belal Muhammad vs Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight)
Brendan Allen vs Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight)
Fares Ziam vs Tom Nolan (Lightweight)
Bryce Mitchell vs Santiago Luna (Bantamweight)
Iwo Baraniewski vs Junior Tafa (Light Heavyweight)
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs Bonfim prelims
Matt Schnell vs Alessandro Costa (Catchweight - 130 lb)
Marcus McGhee vs John Yannis (Bantamweight)
Bruno Gustavo da Silva vs Edgar Chairez (Flyweight)
Priscila Cachoeira vs Chelsea Chandler (Women’s Bantamweight)
Jordan Leavitt vs Joanderson Brito (Featherweight)
Jeisla Chaves vs Yuneisy Duben (Women’s Flyweight)
Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi (Women’s Strawweight)
Ketlen Souza: Shoot-boxer looking to build on her last win
Ketlen Souza (16-6) enters on the back of a unanimous decision over Bruna Brasil, arguably her best win of a 3-3 UFC run that also includes Performance of the Night submission over Yazmin Jauregui. The Invicta flyweight champ and BJJ black belt is a slip and rip boxer with pop in her shots, and the timing to disguise entries into the clinch or takedown. She keeps her shots tight in combination and isn’t shy throwing from southpaw when forced. Her weaknesses come from head-hunting a bit too much and she struggles to pin opponents to the fence as they circle out easily.
Ariane Carnelossi: Physically strong pressure fighter
Ariane Carnelossi (15-4) also sits at 3-3 in the UFC after being submitted by Talita Alencar last time out. The Brazilian carries a 60% finish rate and is the physically stronger fighter, fighting at a faster, more urgent pace than her opponent. Her best weapon is probably her thudding leg kick, and she stays busy in the clinch - the shots aren’t always meaningful, but they score points on the scorecard. She fights in frantic flurries when her opponents commit. The hole in her game is her defensive wrestling, off her back she’ll occasionally stop working to get up and just throw desperate strikes.
Ketlen Souza vs Ariane Carnelossi prediction
The pair first met on the regional scene seven years ago, where Carnelossi got the better of the two. That’s far too long ago now to take into account, and both women have plenty of newer film to dissect. Both failed the Angela Hill test, the gatekeeper exam for whether you belong in the strawweight rankings, and they have different outcomes against Piera Rodriguez, with Carnelossi getting the win when Souza couldn’t.
On the feet, Souza is the cleaner boxer with better footwork and technique, but Carnelossi’s pace and urgency could keep the striking even. However, Souza times her takedown entries well and Carnelossi’s wrestling has shown to be a genuine liability. If Souza is disciplined, and mixes in the takedowns with her slick boxing, she can work for a finish or simply control the fight on the floor with ground-and-pound.
Prediction: Ketlen Souza to win
