The Champions League’s expanded format delivers thrills and shocks

The newly-expanded UEFA Champions League has been a breath of fresh air for the 2024-25 season. With 36 teams – up from the previous 32 – from across Europe participating in a full league format, there have already been some incredible games and shock results for football fans.

UEFA decided to overhaul the format to make the tournament more inclusive, and give more teams a chance to compete against the continent’s best. Real Madrid secured a record 15th Champions League title last season after defeating Borussia Dortmund in the final. However, the Spanish giants have not had it all their own way this term. Real lost to French side Lille on Matchday 2 and then fell to a shock 3-1 defeat at home to AC Milan on Matchday 4.

After four games, Real currently sit outside the top 20. With just the top eight teams qualifying automatically for the knockout stages this season, they now have work to do in their final four matches to advance.

Bigger teams struggling

Real’s woes are a common thread this year. Bigger sides in the Champions League who would usually breeze through the previous group stages are now struggling. Paris Saint-Germain currently languish in 26th place with just four points, while Bayern Munich – who have also lost two games – are 11th with nine points.

This year, the teams who finish between 9th and 24th will face off against each other in a two-legged playoff, with the winner qualifying for the round of 16. The additional games have been criticised by some players and managers, who believe that the extra burden will jeopardize players’ fitness levels in an increasingly congested calendar.

However, the new format has been much more exciting. Instead of playing the same teams twice in the group stage, there are now eight fixtures against different teams. UEFA believes that this will allow for more intriguing match-ups and prevent seeded teams such as Real Madrid and Inter Milan from cruising through to the knockout phase.

This has certainly been the case. Unfancied teams are currently excelling in the format, with the likes of Sporting, Monaco and Brest all performing well.

Monaco secured a surprising win in September when they defeated Barcelona, who are currently flying in La Liga under new boss Hansi Flick. The Ligue 1 side were aided by a red card for Barca’s Eric Garcia early on, but a late winner from George Ilenikhena secured a memorable 2-1 win. They have now taken 10 points from the first four games and are in a great position to qualify.

Odds analysis

With games coming thick and fast in 2024-25, fans should keep an eye on the odds analysis for the Champions League format. There are now 18 games across two gamedays in the week. While lower-ranked sides such as Girona, Brest, Bologna, Stuttgart and Celtic often go into matches with longer odds, the surprise results during this campaign show that they can offer good value.

Celtic showcased this again on Matchday 4 when they turned the tables on top-seeded RB Leipzig. The Scottish champions had previously been humbled 7-1 against Borussia Dortmund but, following a goalless draw with Atalanta, won 3-1 at Celtic Park against the German side thanls to an excellent brace from Nicolas Kuhn and a late Reo Hatate strike.

Real’s recent loss was also a shock. With new signing Kylian Mbappe, they were expected to dominate the competition again this year. However, goals from Malick Thiaw, Alvaro Morata and Tijjani Reijnders secured a comfortable 3-1 victory for AC Milan at the Bernabeu.

Exciting finale

At the halfway stage, everything is still to play for, but the league is starting to take shape. There are currently five teams without a point: Slovan Bratislava, Crvena Zvezda, Young Boys, Sturm Graz and RB Leipzig. It’s unlikely that these teams can do enough to qualify unless they win most of their remaining games.

At the top of the table, four teams are still unbeaten. Statisticians crunching the data believe that 16 points will be enough to qualify automatically for the knockout stages, while ten should secure a place in the top 24. With only three wins and a draw likely to be needed to advance to a playoff, no team has officially been eliminated yet. 

Sporting, Monaco and Brest already have ten points and look destined to qualify, but can they do enough to finish in the top eight? Other mid-table teams including Juventus, Benfica and Lille will be eyeing big wins in the final games. Regardless of what happens, it promises to be an exciting end to the new Champions League format.