The Open Championship 2017 Preview

The 146^th Open Championship visits Royal Birkdale, Southport, for the 10^th time in the championship's history, and the first since 2008. Royal Birkdale is regarded as one of the most challenging tests on The Open rota, making it one of the truest assessments of links golf. TSZ takes a look at who has performed well on the links this season and who the main contenders are for The Open.

• The last three championships have been won with an average of -17, extremely low scoring for a major championship. The overall average for the last 10 Open’s is -9.
• Links golf is traditionally heavily dependent on wind as protection for the course. During the 2008 Open at Royal Birkdale, strong gales and rain hit the championship, resulting in a +3 winning total for Padraig Harrington, who won by four shots from Ian Poulter. Additionally, this was the first winning score over par since 1999, and just the second since 1985. This highlights the difficulty of the layout, and if the weather is unkind, only the very best links player will succeed.

We’ve assessed the world’s current top 30 players’ average finishing position at the Open Championship since 2011:

• World number one Dustin Johnson has the best record of the world’s top 10 players, with an average finish of 19^th from his previous six starts, followed closely by Masters champion Sergio Garcia, who boasts an average finish of 21^st.
• There are two past champions in the top 10 – Henrik Stenson and Rory McIlroy – with an average placing of 30^th and 41^st respectively.
• Jon Rahm has only ever played one Open, finishing in 59^th position.

• World number 15 Adam Scott has the best average finish (15^th) in The Open amongst the world’s top 30 players.
• One of many favourites for the tournament is in-form Tommy Fleetwood, but during his previous six starts he is yet to make the cut.

• Thomas Pieters has only played in one Open so his score should be taken with a pinch of salt, whereas Phil Mickelson (2013 Champion) has an average of 32^nd from his last six appearances, and still finds a way of getting himself into contention during the majors.
• Surprisingly, there are just four previous Open champions currently in the world’s top 30 (fourth = Louis Oosthuizen, 2010), demonstrating how the weather, draw and style of golf can play a big factor in the outcome.
• The top 10 ranked players have an overall average finish position of 39^th, those ranked 11-20 an average of 68^th, and the 21-30 ranked players an average of 59^th.

We next look at the average finishing position (by world ranking group) of the players who competed in this year's Irish and/or Scottish Open, two tournaments seen as good links preparation for The Open:

• Exactly half of the world’s top 30 players competed in either the Irish or Scottish Open in recent weeks.
• Over the two events, players ranked 11-20 in the world have performed better, with an average finishing position of 23^rd.
• Jon Rahm continued his impressive play with a dominant victory at The Irish Open around the famous links of Portstewart, proving he has the game to win on this style of course and possesses the mental skills to combat tough conditions as experienced during this victory.
• Rafa Cabrera Bello sunk a first hole birdie during a play-off to triumph at The Scottish Open around Dundonald Links, a victory which elevated him to 17^th in the world rankings.

We now run through some of our five leading contenders for glory at The Open. With five of the last six Open champions having competed at the Scottish Open the week prior, we have decided to select players who have followed suit this year, with one notable exception. As we highlighted last year, there is a strong correlation for success between the two tournaments:

• Adam Scott has performed strongly in The Open in recent years, and narrowly missed out to Ernie Els in 2012. Scott has the game to win anywhere and if he gets a favourable draw this week, expect to see him up there come Sunday afternoon.

• Matt Kuchar is Mr Consistency and perhaps does not convert his performances into wins enough. However, a 4^th place at The Scottish Open shows his game is right where it needs to be.
• Both Scott and Kuchar played when The Open last visited Royal Birkdale in 2008, with Scott finishing T16 and Kuchar missing the cut. The extra course knowledge could be an advantage for the pair this week.

• Alex Noren simply knows how to win and win regularly. His form over the past 18 months suggests a major is next on the list, and although he did not play in 2014 and 2015 due to injury and missed the cut at last week’s Scottish Open, the familiarity back on the links could see him contend.

• Patrick Reed has taken to links golf and travelled over to Europe in recent years to compete at The Scottish Open. Although a 66^th finish last week doesn’t show great form, a 12^th place in The Open last year proves his links credentials and a top five placing at the minimum wouldn’t be surprising.

• The current Masters champion has not competed in either the Irish or Scottish Open heading to Birkdale, however his previous performances in The Open cannot be overlooked. He has averaged 4^th place during his previous three Open starts and summoned four top 10’s in his previous six starts, making him somewhat of a links specialist. Do not be surprised to see Garcia collect his second major this week.