The Octagon Edge: Betting Locks, Value Picks & Longshots for UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs Murphy
Your weekly breakdown of the sharpest bets inside the Octagon. We dig into the film, dissect the matchups, and find angles that the oddsmakers miss – so you don’t have to.
We bring you the following three types of picks:
Betting locks: Our highest confidence picks of the week. Strong foundations for your accumulators.
Value picks: Positive expected value bets where the odds don’t exactly reflect reality. These are the spots where the bookmakers may have it wrong and the price is too good to ignore.
Longshots: Underdog picks with big payouts, but genuine paths to victory. High risk, high reward, but never without reason.
All odds are taken from Oddschecker
Betting locks
Antonio Trocoli vs Mantas Kondratavicius
Mantas Kondratavicius to win
This one’s straightforward. Trocoli simply isn’t at UFC standard and hasn’t shown standout attributes in any particular area to suggest otherwise. On the other side, Mantas is a young, hungry prospect with everything to fight for. The talent gap should be clear from the opening bell. Mantas has the tools to dominate wherever this fight takes place. Back the prospect with confidence.
Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy
Movsar Evloev to win
The quality of opposition tells the story here. Murphy’s best wins are Aaron Pico, Josh Emmet, and Dan Ige, this doesn’t come close to Evloev’s resume of Aljamain Sterling, Arnold Allen, and Diego Lopes. Evloev’s striking is criminally underrated too, going toe to toe with Allen and even rocking him on the feet. Add in a constant takedown threat that opens up his striking even further, and Murphy is simply outmatched. Evloev has been knocking on the door of a title shot for a while now, expect him to make another emphatic statement here.
Value picks
Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy
Movsar Evloev to win by decision – (1.83) / (5/6) / (-120)
These odds feel inflated off the back of Murphy’s impressive knockout over Pico last year, without that finish, Evloev would likely be a bigger favourite here. Evloev is a decision machine, and his wrestling is elite. He’s taken down Aljamain Sterling, the second best wrestler in the division – how is Murphy going to stop him if Aljo cant? Murphy has been put on his back by much lesser grapplers like Gabrial Santos. The only realistic path to victory for Murphy is a knockout, but he’s never been known as a knockout artist. Both Diego Lopes and Arnold Allen carry more power and had better chances of putting Evloev out, but they didn’t. Expect Evloev to mix his takedowns with his underrated striking, control the fight, and cruise to a comfortable decision at good odds.
Nathaniel Wood vs Losene Keita
Nathaniel Wood to win by decision – (4.50) / (7/2) / (+350)
We’ve seen this scenario before - superstars from other organisations come in as big favourites only to fall short. This could be another case, especially as Wood has defied the odds against skilful fighters in the past.
Keita holds clear advantages in size and counter-punching power, and he’s most dangerous when stalking opponents onto the fence. But wood’s ring craft has consistently allowed him to neutralise dynamic finishers. Wood can score points with leg kicks against Keita’s wide stance, and even threaten takendowns that force Keita to burn explosive energy getting back up, this plays into Wood’s favour later. If Wood survives the early storm and turn this into more of a chess match, there’s a good chance he could pull this off. At this price, it’s worth a look.
Michael Page vs Sam Patterson
Michael Page to win by decision – (3.10) / (21/10) / (+210)
If Michael Page (MVP) wins this fight, it’s almost certainly by decision, he’s yet to record a finish inside the UFC octagon. But that doesn’t mean he can’t win comfortably. MVP’s karate style is unlike anything Patterson will have prepared for, and frankly, unlike anything anyone can prepare for. Nobody fights like him.
The gameplan writes itself. Hang around on the outside, keep Patterson chasing, and blitz in with short combinations before slipping back out to safety. That step-in, slip right hand will be there all night. Patterson isn’t the fastest on the feet and simply isn’t used to dealing with a striker this unorthodox.
At 3.10, getting over even odds on MVP’s most likely method of victory feels like a gift. Great value!
Longshots
Michael Page vs Sam Patterson
Sam Patterson to win by submission – (5.60) / (23/5) / (+460)
Yes, we’ve just backed MVP by decision as a value pick, but at this price, the other side of the coin is worth a look too. Jared Cannonier and Ian Garry was able to take MVP down, and while Patterson might not be on the same level (yet), he’s a bigger submission threat on the ground if he can get there. Patterson is also deceptively long with underrated power on the feet. There’s a chance he catches MVP off guard, especially if the showboating starts in front of the London crowd, we know MVP, he wants to. One clean shot or a well-timed level change and this fight could shift dramatically. At this price, it’s worth a small stake on the upset.
Kurtis Campbell vs Danny Silva
Danny Silva to win by decision – (5.50) / (9/2) / (+450)
Kurtis Campbell is the rightful favourite here – his Muay Thai clinch work, body kicks, and grappling advantage gives him more paths to victory. But at these odds, Silva’s chances aren’t being properly respected. This is a man who didn’t get dominated and overwhelmed against Kevin Vallejos, one of the most dangerous and skilful strikers in the division, someone who’s just knocked out number 11 ranked veteran Josh Emmett in the first round. He’s not going to be overwhelmed here either, even with the London crowd behind Campbell.
Silva’s boxing has shown to be clean in recent fights. He rolls with punches well, counters nicely, and has the durability to take what Campbell throws. If he can avoid getting drawn into the clinch and keep this at the range where his pocket work will shine, there’s a real path to outpointing Campbell across three rounds. None of Campbell’s wins have come against anyone spectacular, why is he such a big favourite? This price looks generous for an upset.
Louie Sutherland vs Brando Pericic
Louie Sutherland to win by decision – (13.00) / (12/1) / (+1200)
A decision? In a heavyweight bout where both fighters’ combined victories have come by finish 87% of the time? Hear me out here. Peričić's only loss came when the fight entered the second round and he looked completely gassed. That’s the blueprint for Sutherland. If Sutherland can survive the early onslaught, and that’s a huge if, and drag this into the second half of the fight, Peričić has shown he hasn’t got a second gear. A faded Peričić chasing a knockout he can’t find is a very different fighter to the one who shows up in round one. Sutherland just needs to stay at range, and point fight his way into the championship rounds. Is it likely?
No.
But you’re getting an absolute bargain on a scenario that has a legitimate path to happening. Your friends will think you’re a genius if this lands.
