MMA Preview – Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington at UFC 296
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LEON EDWARDS VS COLBY COVINGTON FACTS
When is UFC 296? Saturday 16th December, 2023 - 23:00 (UK)
Where is UFC 296? T-Mobile Arena, Paradise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 296? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 296
What channel is UFC 296 on? TNT Sports Box Office (£19.99 – main card)
Where can I stream UFC 296? TNT Sports subscribers can stream the fight online via the TNT Sports website and Discovery+
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
LEON EDWARDS VS COLBY COVINGTON LOWDOWN
Leon Edwards (21-3(1)) makes the second defence of his welterweight crown. It is not the opponent he wanted, but after toppling one of the best welterweights of all time, he has the confidence of beating anyone. He was a round away from losing his first title shot at altitude in Salt Lake City. Kamaru Usman (2022) had three rounds in the bank before eating the famous head kick to collapse into a different realm. The rematch was seven months later and Usman was the favourite again, but the Brummie pulled off arguably his best career performance earning a majority decision at UFC 286 in London.
USA’s favourite villain Colby Covington (17-3) appears for the first time in 21 months. He has only lost twice since 2016 and those were his two title shots against Usman (2019 and 2021). He got TKO’d in the fifth round in his first attempt at UFC 245 and lost a unanimous decision at UFC 268. He picked himself up and returned to fight former friend turn enemy Jorge Masvidal (2022) and grinded out a classic unanimous decision. However, a public assault by Masvidal and time off waiting for his title shot has kept him on the side lines since March.
LEON EDWARDS VS COLBY COVINGTON PREDICTION
Glancing at the stats, this looks like a similar fight to Usman who is also exceptional wrestler with a colossal gas tank. Edwards was the only man to solve the riddle, but the blueprint will not be exactly the same.
Covington lands over four significant strikes and takedowns per minute. Instead of deciding to strike and then wrestle, he will walk Edwards down and continuously mix in volume striking with takedowns. He will not respect Edwards’ skillset and look to suffocate him and control the pace.
Edwards is the better striker with more power, diversity and kicks from range. As we saw in the Usman fight, his takedown defence was sublime and figured out that he needed to prevent Usman’s hands from locking together. He will be prepared to do the same against Covington which could force them to spend a lot of time in the clinch.
Covington can stay in the clinch all day, but this is where Edwards is very underrated. His exit elbow is lethal and his game plan will revolve around creating space and uncorking missiles at the dome and body.
This is not an identical fight for Edwards but the keys to victory are the same and that is his wrestling defence, managing his cardio and creating room for his striking. His confidence could not be higher in doing that which is vital against someone as unrelenting as Covington.
We feel a decision is most likely and we are backing the Brummie to succeed again although Covington is always tempting as the underdog.
Prediction: Edwards via Decision
Value bet: Covington via Decision
