Hawthorn vs Melbourne Preview & Prediction | 2025 AFL | Regular Season | Round 23

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Seventh-placed Hawthorn, the competition’s form team, face a must-win against Melbourne at the MCG to cement their finals spot and keep a top four push alive.

Kick-off date/time:

How to watch on TV: UK – TNT Sports / US – Some matches are televised on Fox Sports channels

How to watch online: UK – discovery+ & Watch AFL / US – Watch AFL

The prediction

Hawthorn (7th) are flying. They are coming off a stunning and brutal 64-point demolition of the then-ladder-leading Collingwood, a statement-making performance at the right time of year.

Melbourne (13th) showed renewed fight and spirit in the wake of Simon Goodwin's sacking, pushing the Western Bulldogs to the final siren in a narrow one-goal loss. The performance was a significant bounce-back after a string of poor results.

Hawthorn ruckman Lloyd Meek was a dominant figure in the victory over Collingwood. He was a powerful presence around the ground, finishing with 32 hit-outs, seven marks, and three crucial goals that broke the Magpies' back.

Melbourne captain Max Gawn once again led from the front in a best-on-ground performance against the Bulldogs. The champion ruckman was immense, gathering 23 disposals, controlling the air with 42 hit-outs, and kicking a goal.

Hawthorn holds the most recent bragging rights, having defeated Melbourne by 35 points when they met in Round 9 of this season. Prior to that, however, Melbourne had won the previous two encounters in 2024 and 2023.

Hawthorn’s ruthless form meets Melbourne’s emotional “new coach bounce back” in a clash where the Meek–Gawn ruck battle looms large. The Demons’ renewed fight is admirable, but the Hawks’ polished system, clear purpose, and finals drive should outweigh a Melbourne side now playing solely for pride.

Hawthorn vs Melbourne tip: Hawthorn to win by 25+ points