The Stats Zone
· Tom

Formula One 2017 - Chinese Grand Prix Preview

AT A GLANCE

IN FOCUS



OUR SAY

After the highly anticipated season opener in Australia, the action now switches to the Chinese Grand Prix in Shanghai. First blood went to Ferrari down under and it looks like it will be a real fight for the championship between Mercedes and Ferrari; a tantalising battle between the Silver Arrows and the Prancing Horse.

The question is; can Ferrari maintain momentum throughout the season?

In Albert Park, the Italian squad’s notable winter-testing form translated into victory on race day, with Vettel able to apply the pressure with more durable tyres than the Mercedes. This allowed Vettel to comfortably stay close behind Hamilton in the opening stint, and after pitting ahead of Hamilton, he was able to control the pace and crucially build a gap.

Ferrari outsmarted Mercedes with strategy, particularly with the ‘over-cut’, albeit with a helping hand by Max Verstappen coming out ahead of Hamilton after the pit-stops. Nevertheless, it was an impressive performance from Vettel, and one reminiscent of his countless Red Bull victories.

The story in Australia was how the Ferrari was better able to stay close behind cars in the dirty, turbulent air and overtake, whereas Mercedes struggled. Expect this to be a similar narrative as the Formula One circus moves to China.

Down under, new Mercedes driver Bottas had a solid if not spectacular debut. Expect him to make another solid performance and challenge for a podium finish this weekend. Red Bull had a very disappointing race, with local Aussie hero Ricciardo breaking down on the formation lap and eventually retiring, whilst Verstappen came in at a distant fifth. Williams were best of the rest with a good sixth place finish from Massa, and should maintain their top four team status in Shanghai.

Toro Rosso had very respectable eighth and ninth place finishes at the season opener, and expect them to be challenging Williams and Force India for solid points again in China.

Surprisingly, McLaren performed much better than most commentators expected in Australia. Even though Alonso eventually retired from the race, he was running in a respectable tenth place for the vast majority of the race. However, China will expose McLaren's issues, and sadly for the great Woking Team, expect them to be towards the back of the pack in Shanghai, as the racing moves to a proper track circuit.

Antonio Giovinazzi replaces the allegedly still unfit Pascal Wehrlein again this weekend for Sauber, and Renault will most likely finish outside the points, with Palmer having to make a better show if he wants to keep his drive.

PREDICTION

Shanghai is a demanding race on both drivers and cars alike. It has high-speed straights, numerous sweeping corners with plenty of changes in direction and big acceleration and deceleration zones. China will test the engines and particularly the brakes. Tyre degradation has always been an issue at this track and it will be fascinating to see how the new Pirelli tyre compounds handle such a demanding circuit.

Because of these circuit characteristics and what we witnessed down under, it is highly likely we will see another very close race.

The prediction is that the resurgent Ferrari pace is the real deal. Hamilton should take pole, but with the longer-game pace and kinder tyre set-up from Ferrari, Vettel will take another win, but only just.