Venezuela vs USA Preview & Prediction | 2026 World Baseball Classic | Final
Click here for today’s sports betting tips from our expert analysts!
Venezuela defeated Italy to reach their first ever WBC final where tournament favourites and 2017 champions USA await them.
Kick-off date/time:
How to watch on TV: UK – TNT Sports / USA – Fox Sports / USA – Netflix
How to watch online: UK – discovery+ / USA – Fox ONE / USA – Netflix
Venezuela vs USA prediction
For the second knockout round in a row, Venezuela came from behind to triumph, this time against Italy, the only undefeated team left in the competition. Losing 2-1 heading into the seventh inning of their semi-final showdown, the Azzurri would regret leaving the bases loaded in the sixth, as three consecutive RBIs from Ronald Acuna Jr, Maikel Garcia and Luis Arraez flipped the script and gave Venezuela a 4-2 lead. The Venezuelan bullpen did the rest, Andres Machado and Daniel Palencia recording the remaining six Italian outs without allowing a base runner to send Venezuela to their first ever World Baseball Classic final.
Standing in their way of a first WBC title are Team USA, coming off the back of a day’s rest following a tense yet thrilling 2-1 victory over the Dominican Republic. In a semi-final dominated by pitching despite the plethora of incredible hitters on show, Paul Skenes and the USA bullpen shut down the vaunted Dominican Republic offense. Skenes reinforced his status as arguably the best starting pitcher in all of baseball by allowing just one run across 4 1/3 innings, a solo shot by Junior Caminero which gave Team DR the lead, before home runs from Gunnar Henderson and Roman Anthony in the fourth inning turned things around for USA.
Anyone who thought Skenes’ withdrawal would open the door for Dominican Republic were very much mistaken, as a quite outstanding showing from Mark DeRosa’a bullpen saw them hold their one-run lead right to the end. After Tyler Rogers forced an inning ending double play in the fifth, Griffin Jax, David Bednar, Garrett Whitlock and Mason Miller combined to give up just two more hits through the final four innings as USA hung on.
Whilst USA come into the final as favourites, which they’ve been in every match featuring them so far in this tournament, their weakest starter takes to the mound and that may just open the door for Venezuela. Nolan McLean gave up three earned runs including two homers against Italy, ultimately leading to a memorable Italian upset. The New York Mets hurler is a huge talent that has a bright future in MLB, but he is simply not yet near the level of starters such as Skenes, Logan Webb or Tarik Skubal. Venezuela have a very dangerous batting line-up from one through nine and will back themselves to cash in on facing McLean.
Therefore, the USA offense will need to score more runs themselves if they are to regain WBC gold. Against lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, Byron Buxton could play in centre field for Pete Crow Armstrong, whilst Alex Bregman may get the nod over Gunnar Henderson despite the latter’s home run in the last four. In the catching department, Will Smith should be preferred over Cal Raleigh as the hotter hitter.
When taking into account the starting pitchers set to get the ball, we are likely to see a higher scoring game compared to the two semi-finals. Team Venezuela boast 12 runs so far across the knockout stage, more than any team to have made it out of pool play, whilst they’ve also accumulated at least four runs in all six of their matches played in the tournament. It’s well worth backing them to reach that number once again in the final against McLean and a USA bullpen potentially without a couple of key pieces such as Bednar and even Miller.
As for the result? Team USA with an extra day’s rest and superstar names down the line-up has to be favoured, but it wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see Venezuela pull off the upset and make history by securing a first World Baseball Classic crown.
Venezuela vs USA tip: Venezuela to score over 3.5 total runs
