Italy vs Mexico Preview & Prediction | 2026 World Baseball Classic | Pool Stage
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Following Italy's stunning win over USA, this match between them and Mexico becomes the biggest of the WBC so far with one of those three nations set to be eliminated.
Kick-off date/time:
How to watch on TV: UK – Not televised / USA – Fox Sports / USA – Netflix
How to watch online: UK – Cannot be streamed / USA – Fox ONE / USA – Netflix
Italy vs Mexico prediction
Whilst Italy are coming off the back of their most recent Pool B contest with USA less than 24 hours ago and pulling off arguably the biggest shock in WBC history, Mexico have had a day off and the chance of reflect on their own efforts against the tournament favourites. Despite Jarren Duran’s two-homer-night, the Mexicans fell short on Monday evening in Houston, as a five-run third inning propelled USA to a 5-3 victory. However, it’s worth noting Mexico’s offensive potency later in games over the course of this pool stage so far. They’ve scored 14 runs from the sixth inning onwards, including seven against Great Britain and all three of their runs vs Team USA.
But the story is all about Italy, who pitched, fielded and batted brilliantly to secure a famous win over USA the following night. Kyle Teel, Jac Caglianone and Sam Antonacci all homered, whilst Michael Lorenzen pitched 4.2 innings of shut out ball, allowing just two hits. They went on to add further insurance, securing an 8-0 lead and whilst USA rallied late on, the Italian bullpen held on to close out an unforgettable 8-6 triumph. That result has thrown Pool B wide open, with the likelihood that Italy, Mexico and USA will all end on 3-1.
Team Italy have proven their worth throughout the entire the tournament, staking their claim as the best European nation in the competition by some way. They’ve scored at least seven runs in all three rounds of pool play so far and their pitching staff is sneakily strong and deep in terms of personnel. However, to get the better of a rested Mexico staff, boosted by what will be a very partisan crowd at Daikin Park is another huge challenge, especially when considering that their opponents will be playing for their place in the competition. With a proven quality pitcher in Aaron Nola on the mound though, scoring runs won't be easy for Mexico.
However, it's key to note that both teams will know what it required to qualify for the quarter-finals. Either a win for Italy, or defeat whilst conceding less than five earned runs will be enough for them, whilst Mexico need to win full stop. The best chance of both these nations making it through at the expense of Team USA is a low-scoring Mexican victory, so backing this outcome is the sensible move here.
Italy vs Mexico tip: Mexico to win and score under 5.5 total runs
