Puerto Rico vs Italy Preview & Prediction | 2026 World Baseball Classic | Quarter-Final
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Seth Lugo gets the ball for Puerto Rico as they are tasked with taking down a red-hot Italy for a place in the semi-finals.
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Puerto Rico vs Italy prediction
These two teams had very different pool stage campaigns with matches involving Puerto Rico mainly proving low-scoring affairs, whilst Italy managed at least seven runs in each of their four games, winning them all on their way to topping Pool B in stunning fashion. That included an 8-6 triumph over tournament favourites USA, the biggest shock result of the competition as it stands.
Three of Puerto Rico’s four Pool A fixtures saw exactly five runs scored and despite them losing their final match 3-2 to Canada, victory over Cuba the night before had ensured their qualification to the knockout stage. But from the quarter-final onwards, they lose home advantage as the players travel from San Juan to Houston, where Italy are already very comfortable in their surroundings with the entirety of Pool B having been played at Daikin Park.
Team Italy secured their place in the last eight with a dominating 9-1 win over Mexico in what was a legacy game for first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. The Azzurri captain struck the first three-homer game in WBC history and his leadership, combined with Aaron Nola’s lights out starting pitching saw them dominate Mexico, going on to win and top Pool B, keeping Team USA alive in the process.
This is essentially a battle between a scorching Italian offence and Puerto Rico’s best pitching bullets as Seth Lugo of the Kansas City Royals starts, having previously pitched four-plus innings against Colombia, giving up just three hits and no runs. After Lugo, the likes of superstar closer Edwin Diaz in the bullpen will be absolutely pivotal for Puerto Rico and scoring against a pitcher like him should prove Italy’s biggest challenge yet.
For perhaps the first time in this tournament, there is genuine expectation on the shoulders of Italy. They’d been underdogs across the pool stage but with their hitters racking up runs, not to mention their flawless 4-0 record, Francisco Cervelli’s side have every right to be confident of victory here. But this is a huge test for the batters against this Puerto Rico pitching staff and it would be no surprise to see a lower-scoring encounter, so consider backing under 8.5 runs to be scored with the outcome having the potential to go either way.
Puerto Rico vs Italy tip: Under 8.5 total runs
