UFC 330: Rafael Tobias vs Lucas Fernando Preview & Prediction
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Two Brazilians face off at light heavyweight on the UFC 330 undercard, as LFA two-division champion Lucas Fernando makes his octagon debut against Rafael Tobias.
Rafael Tobias vs Lucas Fernando facts
What time are Rafael Tobias and Lucas Fernando expected to walk out?
Where is UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry? Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, USA
Where can I get tickets for UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC 330
What TV channel is UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry on? UK – TNT Sports / USA – Paramount
Where can I stream UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry? UK – TNT Sports can stream the event online via the TNT Sports website and HBO Max / USA – Paramount+ & UFC Fight Pass
UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry main card
Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight)
Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson (Women's Strawweight)
Charles Johnson vs Eduardo Henrique (Flyweight)
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus (Middleweight)
Edson Barboza vs Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight)
UFC 330: Makhachev vs Machado Garry prelims
Chidi Njokuani vs Joel Alvarez (Welterweight)
Jalin Turner vs Kaue Fernandes (Lightweight)
Donte Johnson vs Eric McConico (Middleweight)
Vicente Luque vs Tresean Gore (Welterweight)
Rafael Tobias vs Lucas Fernando (Light Heavyweight)
Neil Magny vs Ramiz Brahimaj (Welterweight)
Jeremiah Wells vs Myktybek Orolbai (Welterweight)
Rafael Tobias: “Bipolar” looks to get off the mark in his second attempt
Rafael Tobias (14-2) arrived in the promotion with plenty of hype attached, submitted the previously undefeated Jair de Oliveira with a first-round rear naked on the Contender Series before running into Diyar Nurgozhay and dropping a unanimous decision. Still only 23, the Brazilian has time on his side. Against larger frames he fights at range behind a tight guard, chipping away with low kicks and straight punches while looking to time takedowns on his opponent’s entry. Once he’s on top, his ground and pound is heavy and he can submit from multiple positions.
Lucas Fernando: The two-division LFA king finally gets his call
Lucas Fernando (13-3) is only the third fighter in LFA history to hold belts in two weight classes. A unanimous decision loss to Cesar Almeida on the Contender Series in 2023 cost him a contract, and he then lost his middleweight title to Azamat Bekoev over five rounds. Since then, it’s four straight wins, the last two coming after a move up to 205; Phillip Latu in 63 seconds, and Leon Soares within half a round. The Brazilian kickboxer stands 6’3” with an 81.5 inch reach, and has never been finished.
Rafael Tobias vs Lucas Fernando prediction
Tobias does have a route to victory here, time a level change off Fernando’s entries and turn this into a grappling fight where his top control and submission variety take over. At 23, there’s room for growth too. The issue is that everything Tobias does, Fernando does bigger. Also, Fernando doesn’t really overthrow in his strikes either, so it’ll be hard to get the takedown entry.
Seven inches of reach is a large gap, and Fernando uses his frame well, sticking the jab out as a range finder before crashing in with heavy straights and hooks to the body. His low kicks are the harder of the two, his kicking game is more rounded with the spinning side kicks to the body, and he’s got step-in knees waiting in the pocket. He also throws in longer combinations and knows when to smell blood. The only flaw worth noting is that Fernando’s head is more available during exchanges, but the counterpoint is that nobody has stopped him before. Almeida and Bekoev both had him at range for the full distance and neither could put him away.
The jump up in weight has also amplified Fernando’s power rather than dilute it, and Tobias was second best on the feet against Nurgozhay who is another striker. Fernando to win is a lock.
Prediction: Lucas Fernando to win by KO/TKO
