The role of stats in this market

One of the key aspects of prediction markets is the way that the entire system is built around the concept of implied probability. This means that statistics play a massive part in how people decide what to predict. Anyone who understands statistics and is willing to look for the right numbers immediately improves their chances of success.  

If we start with the trading price, this is the overall market consensus on the outcome of the event. A winning contract pays at $1 while a losing one pays at $0. A price of $0.70 tells you that the statistical probability of it occurring is 70%, based on the market as a whole at this time. Using the wisdom of the crowd theory, the probability is generally a highly accurate reflection of the real chance of something happening, but it's not a guarantee.   

For many sports fans, this gives them an immediate baseline figure to work from. Let’s say that they’re considering a contract for an NBA team to win a game that they're currently losing. By looking at the historical examples of the same team being in that same position, we can start to see whether the market price is attractive or not. Having a full set of stats relating to the event is one of the best ways of understanding what might happen next.

Since prediction markets cover a massive variety of events and outcomes, this gives fans lots of opportunities to look for something where they feel they have an edge, alongside taking advantage of the Novig promos for new users. Sports betting has traditionally been based on certain outcomes, such as the outright winner or the number of points scored, so the need for statistics was relatively limited. However, since we can now predict just about any type of outcome, there are now far more opportunities to delve deeply into the stats and find out about the numbers and trends that other people might miss.

Sports are driving current prediction market growth

While prediction markets let users speculate on everything, it’s sports that have come to dominate their trading volume. This makes sense when you consider that, in many US states, there are pre-established audiences ready to engage in online sports betting. It’s the same audience that the Bernstein thesis is partly built on (along with Trad-Fi traders). When they hit prediction markets, 60%+ of trades are on sports outcomes.

Given how prediction markets merge finance and betting, there are understandable parallels with sport that you just don’t get if you bet on what the president will say next. You can research an athlete like you can a stock, and there’s no shortage of sites like ours that track sporting stats across the board. Today, speculators can pull up Kylian Mbappe’s goals graphed out and use it to inform future predictions.