Italy vs Germany Preview: Team News & Prediction

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It is one of European international football’s most famous and intriguing rivalries as four-time world champions Italy face four-time world champions Germany in the UEFA Nations League.

Kick-off date/time: Thursday 20th March, 2025: UK – 7:45pm / US ET – 3:45pm / US PT – 12:45pm

How to watch on TV: UK – Not televised / US – FOX Sports

How to watch online: UK – Amazon Prime / US – FOX Sports streaming platforms

Italy Preview: Improving Azzurri

Italy, with Luciano Spalletti at the helm, endured a tough UEFA EURO 2024 campaign but have shown signs of improvement in the autumn internationals, albeit they will be frustrated that they missed out on top spot in their group in League A.

They were in pole position throughout their league phase campaign after a defeat of France in Paris but Les Bleus returned the favour in the reverse fixture in the final game of the groups with a pivotal Adrien Rabiot brace giving the French a 3-1 win in Milan.

Germany Preview: Improving Die Mannschaft

Julian Nagelsmann is in charge of a Germany side that reached the quarter-finals of UEFA EURO 2024 last summer, losing to eventual winners Spain after extra-time, but then had to undergo major surgery with the retirements of several senior players.

Manuel Neuer, Toni Kroos, Ilkay Gundogan and Thomas Muller all departed the national side and their evolution has been an impressive one thus far, albeit against fairly reasonable opposition in Hungary and Bosnia-Herzegovina.

Italy Team News: No Dimarco

Spalletti will be without key man Federico Dimarco, who has been missing through injury for Inter the last couple of months. The wing-back spots are up for grabs with the likes of Destiny Udogie and Andrea Cambiaso seemingly likely to start. Gianluigi Donnarumma appears likely to keep out in-form Alex Meret as well as Guglielmo Vicario in net.

Predicted XI (3-5-2): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Buongiorno, Bastoni; Cambiaso, Frattesi, Barella, Tonali, Udogie; Kean, Retegui

Unavailable: Dimarco (Injured)

Questionable:

Germany Team News: Baumann to get the nod

According to BILD, Julian Nagelsmann has taken the surprising decision to start Oliver Baumann ahead of both Alexander Neubel and Stefan Ortega in the German goal. Joshua Kimmich remains essential for Die Mannschaft but is a yellow card away from being suspended for the second-leg of this tie.

Predicted XI (4-2-3-1): Baumann; Kimmich, Tah, Rudiger, Raum; Andrich, Goretzka; Sane, Musiala, Adeyemi; Kleindienst

Unavailable: Ter Stegen (Injured), Wirtz (Injured), Havertz (Injured), Fullkrug (Injured)

Questionable:

Key Stats

Italy are unbeaten in their last five matches against Germany in Italy (W2 D3). The last three matches between the two teams in Italy finished level.
Germany’s last away win against Italy was in a friendly in February 1986 (W 2-1 as West Germany).
Italy have lost only two of their previous 13 UEFA Nations League matches in Italy (W5 D6). However, they did lose their most recent such fixture against France on Matchday 6 of the 2024/25 league phase (L 1-3).
Italy have only failed to score in one of their last 19 UEFA Nations League matches.
Italy have scored in the first half in each of their last nine UEFA Nations League matches.
Germany are unbeaten in their last seven UEFA Nations League matches (W4 D3).
Germany have lost only two of their last 19 UEFA Nations League matches (W7 D10).
Germany have only failed to score in two of their last 20 UEFA Nations League matches.
Germany are unbeaten in their last six UEFA Nations League matches outside of Germany (W1 D5).
Germany have lost only one of their last 15 international matches (W10 D4).
None of Germany’s last 21 UEFA Nations League matches finished without a goal being scored.

Italy vs Germany Prediction

Both Luciano Spalletti and Julian Nagelsmann have the intention to play entertaining and slick football and the expectation is for this one to be quite an easy on the eye watch for the neutral. The Italians most recently showed their frailty when attacked by France but they will fancy their chances of causing Germany issues, with Die Mannschaft yet to really be tested since their rejuvenation following last summer. Both teams scoring would appear a good bet for the first-leg of this UEFA Nations League quarter-final.

Italy vs Germany Tip: Both teams to score