TSZ Predicts The Six Nations – Week One

Using our extensive statistical archives, we will look at each fixture in the 2017 Six Nations and project how each game could pan out. We will use historical Six Nations data, which has been collected for every iteration since 2000 (when Italy joined the competition), and supplement that by looking at recent form, in order make our predictions.

Scotland vs Ireland
Scotland and Ireland open up the Six Nations this year when they meet at Murrayfield this afternoon. Let’s firstly take a look at the points scored in all of their Six Nations meetings since 2000:

• Ireland have won 14 of the 17 Six Nations matches played against Scotland.
• In 10 out of the 17 games, Ireland have won by 10 or more points.
• Of the three times that Scotland have beaten Ireland, only once (2001) have they won by a margin greater than seven points.
• Bar two matches, the winner of the first half has gone on to win the match.
• One of Scotland’s three victories came after they were losing at half-time.
• Ireland have scored more points than Scotland 82% of the time in the first half and 76% of the time in the second half.

• In 15 out of 17 matches, Ireland have scored more tries than Scotland.
• Out of these 15 wins, Ireland have scored four or more tries on eight occasions.
• Only in 2001 have Scotland scored more tries than Ireland, a match they went on to win.
• In the two other matches that Scotland have won, they have won on penalties not tries, with Ireland giving away four penalties in 2013 and five in 2010.

• Since August 2015, Scotland have won 61% of their games.

• Ireland have only won 57% of their games during this period, but they have arguably faced tougher opposition than Scotland have.

Other potential contributing factors to the result of this game may be:

• Scotland have home advantage.
• Johnny Sexton, Ireland's first choice 10, is out with a calf injury.
• Ireland's flanker, Peter O’Mahony, is out because of a hamstring problem.
• Andrew Trimble, who is normally on the wing for Ireland, is a major doubt because of groin tightness.
• Scotland are missing WP Nel, Peter Horne, David Denton and Alasdair Dickinson.

From the data above, we predict that Ireland will win by no more than 10 points this weekend.

Although Ireland have won by 10 or more points in 10 out of their 14 wins, their injuries to key players, Scotland’s recent form and the game being played at Murrayfield suggests that Ireland may not come away with as big a score margin as they have done in the past.

Taking this predicted scoreline into consideration, we believe that there is a high possibility that Scotland will win at least one bonus point as the losing side. However, the try scoring history between the two teams indicates that they will not win a bonus point for scoring four or more tries. Contrary to this, Ireland do have history on their side in terms of scoring four or more tries.

England vs France

• England have won 11 out of their 17 Six Nations matches against France.
• The only time France have beaten England by more than six points was in 2006.
• Only once did a half-time win turn into a loss at full-time for England.
• England have turned a half-time loss into a win on three occasions.
• Both England and France have been leading 47% of the time after the first half (with two draws). However, England have scored more points in the second half 71% of the time.

• In 10 out of 17 matches, England have scored more tries than France.
• In four out of the remaining seven matches, both teams scored the same number of tries.
• England have scored four or more tries against France in three matches, with France only scoring four or more tries in 2015.

• Since August 2015, England have won 84% of their games.
• England have won their last 14 games and were undefeated in 2016. They are just four matches short of the all-time winning streak record for a Tier One Test playing nation, set by New Zealand between August 2015 and October 2016 (18 consecutive wins).

• Since August 2015, France have only won 50% of their games and have played seven fewer matches than England.

Other potential contributing factors to the result of this game may be:

• England have home advantage.
• Ex-England captain Chris Robshaw will miss the entire Six Nations due to recent shoulder surgery.
• Billy Vunipola will be missing for several weeks due to knee ligament damage.
• Billy’s older brother, Mako Vunipola. is also missing as he is recovering from knee trouble.
• England winger Anthony Watson is set to miss more international games due to further injury.
• George Kruis is to miss England's Six Nations opener with a knee ligament injury but hasn’t been ruled out for the entire tournament.
• The French number 10, Francois Trinh-Duc, is recovering from a broken arm suffered in November and will miss the whole of the Six Nations.

From the data above, we predict that England will win. Basing our prediction on predominantly recent performances, we believe that England will beat France by 10-20 points, consequently preventing Les Bleus from receiving the losing bonus point.

Based on recent performances and the history between the two teams, we think it is unlikely that either team will score four or more tries, however England are statistically more likely to do so.

Italy vs Wales

• Wales have won 14 and drawn one of their 17 Six Nations matches against Italy.
• Wales have scored more than 20 points against Italy in nine out of their 14 wins.
• In the two matches that Italy have beaten Wales, they have won by under 10 points.
• Every time Wales have been winning in the first half, they have gone on to win the match.
• On two out of three matches where Wales were losing in the first half, they went on to lose the match.
• In 2006, Wales and Italy drew both halves.
• Wales have won 76% of both first and second halves against Italy.

• In 12 out of 17 matches, Wales have scored more tries than Italy.
• Italy have never scored more tries than Wales in the Six Nations, but tries scored have been equal on five occasions.
• Wales have scored four or more tries against Italy on seven occasions.
• Italy have never scored four or more tries against Wales in the Six Nations.

• Italy have only won 28% of their games since August 2015.

• Since August 2015, Wales have won 52% of their games.

Other potential contributing factors to the result of this game may be:

• Italy have home advantage.
• Italy currently only have one injury concern in the lead up to the Six Nations, with Dries van Schalkwyk battling to overcome an ankle injury.
• Wales’ most-capped player – Gethin Jenkins – is expected to miss the whole of this year’s Six Nations as he underwent surgery on his bicep in December.
• Dan Lydiate is out for the remainder of this season and will miss the entirety of the Six Nations due to knee injury.
• Taulupe Faletau, who is returning to full fitness after a second knee injury, and Luke Charteris, who has a fractured bone in his hand, will miss Wales’ first game but could be in the selection mix to face England next weekend.

From the data above, we predict that Wales will beat Italy by over 20 points on Sunday and receive a bonus point for scoring four or more tries.

Even with injuries and a mediocre 2016 for the team in red, we don’t think Italy will receive the bonus point as the losing side, and their try scoring history suggests that they will not get the bonus point for four tries scored.

Next week, we’ll be previewing the second set of fixtures, and we’ll also be evaluating our predictions for this weekend. Stay tuned!