Manny Pacquiao vs Jessie Vargas

On the 4th of April 2016, Manny Pacquiao hung-up his gloves after a unanimous decision (UD) victory over long-time rival Timothy Bradley Jr at the MGM Grand, Las Vegas in fitting style. His next adventure was to focus entirely on the task of being voted in as Senator in his home land the Philippines on the 9th of May 2016. Subsequently, Pacquiao was voted into Parliament, with his rags-to-riches story magnifying even further. However, in August 2016 Manny announced he would be getting back in the ring, claiming he needs to earn a living to support his family as he cannot merely rely on his salary as a public official. And so, Pacquiao will be facing Jessie Vargas for the WBO World Welterweight title at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas on the 5th of November 2016.

Regarded as one of the greatest boxers the sport has ever seen, Manny Pacquiao’s return has left many surprised, especially taking into account Vargas’ somewhat small stature in boxing. However, even though this is yet another world title fight for Pacquiao, it is perhaps seen as more of a stepping stone to another mega-money rematch with Floyd Mayweather Jr.

With Pacquiao being 10 years older than his opponent, the numbers barely compare. Jessie Vargas has amassed a mere 28 bouts with 10 knockouts (KO) compared to Manny’s 66 with 38 KO’s. Pacquiao has proved throughout his career he can go the distance, having won 22 fights on points and, having amassed 431 rounds, isn’t just an early round knockout specialist. Arguably, Vargas is more of a technical fighter who is used to going the distance and winning on points, having done so during 62% of his fights.

Particularly, Vargas has the upper-hand on height (178cm v 166cm) and reach (180cm v 170cm). On paper, it would appear unlikely that Pacquiao would choose a fight on his return to the sport that could result in only his seventh loss, but with him being in his twilight years of boxing – regardless of retirement – the opposing styles, age difference and Manny’s external commitments, this contest could be closer than many predict.

As one of the most successful boxers in history, it is no surprise that Pacquiao has faced a greater number of successful and high calibre opponents. Notably, Manny’s opponents throughout his career have averaged 32 fights respective to their fight date, with an average of 26 wins, one draw and four losses. Vargas has faced opponents who on average have had 25 fights but the difference in level is most significant when assessing their average of just 19 wins, one draw and a greater number of losses (5) even with 36 less fights.

Pacquiao’s last six bouts have yielded two of his total six career losses, albeit to two other greats of boxing in Juan Manuel Marquez and Floyd Mayweather Jr. Of the previous six fights, Manny’s opponents have averaged just one loss in their careers, demonstrating further the calibre of opponents he has fought even during the later stages of his career. Excluding the sixth round KO to Marquez, the additional five bouts having all gone the distance, indicating his once famous punch power may not be what it used to be, but he still has the engine and skills to outbox his rivals. Markedly, Timothy Bradley Jr has appeared twice in his previous six fights due to Pacquiao experiencing a rare loss in 2012 which has since been rectified with two recent victories.

Vargas’ last six bouts have also averaged only one loss for his opponents; however, the average number of fights has been just 26. Significantly, the only loss of Jessie’s career to date has been against Timothy Bradley Jr – a challenger who has been one of the few to defeat Pacquiao. Furthermore, Vargas has spent 207 minutes in the ring compared to Pacquiao’s 198 minutes, showing similar levels of fight time in recent years.

Due to Pacquiao having fought Bradley three times with two wins and one loss and Vargas having suffered his only career defeat to the same opponent, the statistics from these fights could identify further who has the upper-hand heading into the bout.

Punch stats provided by CompuBox

During each of the three fights, Pacquiao threw less punches during the first two contests but was more accurate in the process, landing more than his challenger. However, in the third fight, it would appear Bradley opted for a change of tactics and threw significantly less punches than in the previous two. Nevertheless his accuracy again, coupled with Pacquiao’s ability to dodge and read Bradley resulted in less punches landed than Manny. Although there was a similar total average of punches thrown over the three fights, Pacquiao’s timing, accuracy and skill resulted in him landing significantly more.

Punch stats provided by CompuBox

It was a similar story during each fight as total jabs thrown, perhaps unsurprisingly, went in the same trend. Notably, Pacquiao stayed disciplined and efficient with his jab throughout the three fights, throwing between 219 and 258. Bradley was the busiest again in fight one, but he was unable to match this work rate in the next two which was conceivably more down to Pacquiao nullifying his opponent rather than a Bradley change of tactics.

Punch stats provided by CompuBox

Pacquiao’s famous power was feasibly his downfall in his loss during the first bout, throwing over 100 more power punches than his opponent, and although he landed 39%, the energy and tactics exerted played into Bradley’s strengths. The next two fights saw a decrease in power punches thrown by Pacquiao with Bradley throwing slightly more, but it was Manny’s accuracy that proved the difference once again.

Punch stats provided by CompuBox

Vargas attempted 335 power punches against Bradley but only managed to land 109 with a similar level of volume and accuracy in his jab. Overall he summoned 630 punches, but his accuracy was similar to that of Bradley’s against Pacquiao in their final two fights.

Punch stats provided by CompuBox

Bradley’s performance against the two different opponents is notable. In each category, Bradley threw remarkably more punches against Vargas than he did against Pacquiao and also landed significantly more in the process, suggesting Pacquiao’s ability to out-manoeuvre, out-think, be more efficient and accurate and use his power to hinder Bradley, resulted in the American being unable to dictate the fight. Bradley showed similar numbers and tactics in his first fight against Pacquiao as he did against Vargas, however many still believe Manny was unlucky to lose that particular fight on points, demonstrating that against Vargas on 5th November Pacquiao will perhaps use similar tactics to his second and third fight against Bradley, and use his supreme accuracy and power to add another win to his 66.

Nevertheless, Vargas has shown, even against Bradley, he is prepared to use his jab and outwork his opponent, and although his power is not devastating, factor in his height and reach advantage and he is more than capable of ruining Pacman’s return.