Hull FC vs Wigan Warriors – 2017 Challenge Cup Final Preview

Hull FC won at Wembley for the first time in their history last season to finally lay that particular ghost to rest. On Saturday – in the 116th Challenge Cup final – they face Wigan Warriors as they aim to retain the trophy.

Hull’s win last season was all the more remarkable not just because of their history at Wembley but the way they won the trophy that day, as well as the route they had to take to even make the final in the first place.

In a repeat of the 2013 final, in which Wigan claimed a 16-0 victory, the Warriors will be hoping for the same result as they aim to prevent Hull from going back-to-back. If they are to do that, they may have to come out on top in the key battles which we’ll look at below, as well as trends from previous finals dating back to 1996.

Squads

Hull FC: Josh Bowden, Jake Connor, Gareth Ellis, Mahe Fonua, Chris Green, Josh Griffin, Danny Houghton, Albert Kelly, Sika Manu, Steve Michaels, Mark Minichiello, Jamie Shaul, Marc Sneyd, Fetuli Talanoa, Scott Taylor, Jordan Thompson, Carlos Tuimavave, Danny Washbrook, Liam Watts

Wigan Warriors: John Bateman, Joe Burgess, Tony Clubb, Tom Davies, Liam Farrell, Anthony Gelling, Oliver Gildart, Willie Isa, Thomas Leuluai, Liam Marshall, Michael McIlorum, Frank-Paul Nuuausala, Sean O’Loughlin, Sam Powell, Ryan Sutton, Taulima Tautai, Joel Tomkins, Sam Tomkins, George Williams

Key Battles

There are tantalising battles all over the field in this encounter – the skippers Gareth Ellis and Sean O’Loughlin battling it out at loose forward; hard men Sika Manu and John Bateman facing off in the back row; game-changing fullbacks Jamie Shaul and Sam Tomkins whilst also not forgetting the man who won Hull the trophy last year with his unbelievable tackle late in the game, reigning Steve Prescott Man of Steel Danny Houghton coming up against Michael McIlorum at hooker.

Whilst every individual battle on the field will be important, we’ve picked out three below that could help define the game:

Albert Kelly vs George Williams

• If either of these two win the Lance Todd trophy for Man of the Match, it will certainly come as no surprise and will more than likely mean that they have guided their side to victory.
• Both men have been in great form this season, with Kelly marking his debut campaign in a Hull shirt with 18 tries in Super League with Williams bagging 10.
• Williams however has been laying tries on for fun for his teammates with 28 assists in the league, with Kelly contributing eight.
• Williams has made 1947 metres compared to Kelly’s 1549. However, this comes over many more carries with Kelly’s average gain 8.2 metres per carry compared to Williams’ 6.1 metres per carry.
• Both men have been successful when carrying the ball – Kelly has made 17 clean breaks with ball in hand, with Williams making 13; the Wigan man also busted 72 tackles whilst Kelly has 58 to his name.

Mahe Fonua vs Tom Davies

• In Mahe Fonua’s last Challenge Cup game for Hull before departing for the NRL in 2018, he is likely to come up against rookie Tom Davies.
• Davies has been impressive since breaking into the Wigan first team this season and has managed 11 tries in Super League so far, with Fonua crossing eight times for Hull.
• Both men have put their hand up to take some hard carries for their side with their numbers looking very similar. Fonua has made 2850 metres from 332 carries for 8.58 metres per carry, whereas Davies has carried the ball 334 times for 2899 metres – an average gain of 8.68 metres per carry.
• From those carries, Davies has bust the tackle on 51 occasions but Fonua has surpassed that number with an impressive 67.
• Fonua is renowned for his robust and flamboyant style, which perhaps explains why he has made 35 errors compared to Davies’ 14.

Liam Watts vs Frank-Paul Nuuausala

• Two big men in the front row could have an important impact on this game with both sides looking to get on the front foot with their forwards.
• Both men have tackled with a 94% success rate in Super League this season. Watts has attempted 674 tackles and made 632 of those, with Nuuausala making 510 and missing 33.
• Watts comes out on top in tackle busts with the Hull man busting the tackle on 28 occasions compared to the 13 of Nuuausala.
• Nuuausala has made a higher average gain than Watts this season with the Wigan man making 7.44 metres per carry compared to Watts’ 7.1 metres per carry.
• Having been sent off twice this season, Watts’ discipline might come into question on Saturday. He’s conceded 22 penalties compared to his Wigan counterpart’s 12.

What Do Previous Finals Tell Us?

• Last year, Hull became only the second side since 1996 to overcome a half-time deficit and go on to win the Challenge Cup.
• Out of the last 21 finals, the team scoring the first try went on to win the game 17 times, with London in 1999, Leeds in 2005, Huddersfield in 2006 and Warrington in 2016 the only four teams who couldn’t build on scoring first to win the game.
• Warrington also became just the second side in the last 21 finals to score the first two tries in the game but fail to win the trophy.
• By coming from behind at half-time after also conceding the opening two tries in the game, Hull became the first side in the Super League era to overcome both of these deficits in the same game and go on to win the trophy.
• Hull go into the game having ended the regular Super League season in third place, with Wigan finishing in seventh. The team that ended the regular season in the higher position has won the final 13 times (62%), with the team that finished lower winning eight finals (38%).

Route To The Final

We’ve looked back to see how the winners of the previous 21 years made it to glory. This has been done on a points system with the number of points awarded representative of the final position in the regular season (tenth place would be 10 points and so on). The highest number of teams Super League has had during this period is 14, so if a winning side has played a team from the lower leagues, they have been awarded 15 points for those games.

• On the last two occasions Hull have won the Challenge Cup (2005 and 2016), they had to defeat Super League opposition throughout their run. If they retain the trophy on Saturday, this will be the case again having defeated Catalans Dragons, Castleford Tigers and Leeds Rhinos on their way to the final with Wigan Warriors.
• Hull’s win last year was the toughest run using our system for determining difficulty of cup runs. They had to face Super League teams in second, third, fourth and fifth which was the most difficult task they could have faced having ended the regular season in first place.
• If Hull win back-to-back trophies, they will have done it having set the third most difficult route going back to 1996. Only St. Helens in 2004 would separate their run this year and last.
• Wigan have had a somewhat easier route to the final having faced lower league opposition in Swinton Lions, ninth-placed Warrington Wolves and fourth-placed Salford Red Devils, leaving their difficultly ranking at 31 points. However, only five cup runs have been more difficult for any winner since 1996.

What Happens After The Final?

• With the race to finish in the top four in Super League extremely tight, history shows that the losing side in Saturday’s final are best placed to collect points in the aftermath of Wembley.
• Teams who lift the trophy win 40% of their next three fixtures following their trip to Wembley, with the runners-up bouncing back from their disappointment to win 67.7% of their next three games.
• The runners-up win their following fixture 83.3% of the time since 2005, with only Leeds in that year as well as Hull in 2008 failing to win their next game following losing in the Challenge Cup final.
• Following winning the Challenge Cup, only 27.3% of teams have managed to claim victory in their third game after the final. Hull managed to improve that number slightly by defeating Wakefield in their third game after Wembley last year, joining St. Helens in 2006 and Wigan in 2013.

The Game

Having broken their Wembley hoodoo as well as breaking some long-standing trends, Hull will be looking to go back-to-back on Saturday. Standing in their way is a Wigan side that has been well below their best by their standards for most of the season. However, they now have plenty of first-teamers back in the fold following injuries and have produced some much-improved displays recently.

Having pointed out last year that records are there to be broken, Hull certainly did that and will hold the belief that they can come back into the game even if they go in behind at half-time once again or concede the first two tries in the game. Although Wigan will be desperate to win this game, should they in fact do so, they will be looking to break some trends of their own in the aftermath of Wembley, with them really needing to match St. Helens’ three victories following a Challenge Cup success in 2006 to give themselves any chance of making the top four in Super League.

The 1985 final between these two sides was one of the all-time great contests, a far cry from the 2013 final that was such a poor spectacle. With so many stars on the pitch come 3pm on Saturday, it is hoped that the weather is kind and helps to produce a free-flowing game that really could go either way. Can Hull retain the trophy and well and truly laugh in the face of those who said they would never win at Wembley? Or will Wigan inject fresh impetus into their season by claiming a major piece of silverware?