England vs South Africa – The Keys To Victory

England may start the ICC Cricket World Cup 2019 as overwhelming favourites with the bookmakers but one look at the data shows that South Africa can be fancied to run them close in the opening match of the tournament at The Oval.

South Africa have prevailed in six of their nine ODI meetings with England at the South London venue and the two sides can’t be separated in World Cup history having provided some gripping drama since their very first meeting in 1992 at the MCG. Famously, England won their semi-final that year thanks to a quirk of the rain rules in Sydney and the two have since shared some classics on the world stage that all points to a mouthwatering affair on Thursday.

England’s elimination from the 2015 edition was their white-ball nadir, with an approach so obsessed by statistics that it inspired the excellent book “28 days’ data”, about the national failure to get to grips with the format. However, there are some statistics that are worth a look ahead of this fixture.

Rabada key

South Africa have won three of their last five matches against England in 50-over cricket and Kagiso Rabada has been on top form in each of those victories. With returns of 4/39, 3/34 and 4/45, the 24-year-old had managed to chip away at England’s new-found power-hitting and it is no coincidence that when he had less success, England twice posted 330+ scores; enough to win the other two matches.

Since the start of 2018, Rabada has been South Africa’s leading wicket-taker in the format with 36 wickets, each costing 27.11. More importantly, it is his accuracy which has the chance to build pressure for the bowlers at the other end. He has bowled 15 maiden overs over the last 16 months of ODI cricket and it’s that nagging line and length that will test England’s dexterity in the tournament opener.

Teams prefer to chase

The dynamics of the venue – allied to a 10.30 start in May – would suggest that the team winning the toss will be looking to field first. That has been the winning formula in 28 of 48 ODIs at The Oval, with 13 of the last 19 completed one-day internationals there being won by the team chasing a total. Naturally, both sides would prefer to chase, so it would be an option for either captain to opt for first use of the track.

Joe Root: Mr Consistency

Incredibly for such a talented cricketer and Test Match captain, Joe Root’s talents often appear to fly under the radar. However, averaging 52 in ODIs since the start of 2018, and with a career record of 14 tons and 30 half-centuries, the numbers are hard to ignore. Against South Africa, his overall numbers follow a similar pattern, but he has a lower average in ODIs against them (31) in England having returned 124 runs from his four outings in front of a home crowd.