Are Liverpool Genuine Title Contenders?

Liverpool fans have begun to raise their head cautiously over the social media parapet, understandably feeling optimistic about their side’s chances in the Premier League following recent results. Much of the positivity and expectation at Anfield is being laid at the feet of not-so-new manager Jurgen Klopp. The affable German’s bear hugging and overzealous touchline gesticulation endear him to the Kop faithful. However, this isn’t the ‘The Sentimental Zone’; analysing the cold hard stats is our vice, and the suggestion that Liverpool have been transformed under the tutelage of Jurgen Klopp needs closer examination.

Away victories against Arsenal and Chelsea give the rest of the Premier League (PL) an early warning that Liverpool are to be taken seriously this season. However, Klopp’s record in the Premier League thus far is not altogether different from the start made by much maligned former boss Brendan Rodgers. Rodgers’ first season in charge saw him record 16 wins with a win percentage of 42.1%. This is only marginally worse than Klopp’s current win percentage of 48.6%, achieved after 37 PL games across the last 12 months - equating to 18 wins. Given that there are 38 games in a PL season, Klopp has an opportunity to improve upon this statistic with his next fixture, at which point the percentages would be truly comparable. Of course, this is by no means a given with a fixture against Manchester United next up for the reds. As it happens, Rodgers’ alleged disastrous last (full) season in charge saw him clock up 18 wins – better than Klopp’s current Liverpool tally.

This is not necessarily a criticism of Klopp, rather it may be a sign that Brendan Rodgers was unfairly treated. After all, he did come within a Gerrard slip of cementing his name into Anfield’s illustrious history. The infamous transfer committee’s flawed recruitment policy meant that Rodgers was always unlikely to repeat the relative successes of 2013/14 the following year.

Liverpool fans need not be discouraged. Jurgen Klopp’s first two campaigns with Borussia Dortmund saw him post similar numbers to his start at Liverpool. Klopp’s win percentages in 08/09 and 09/10 were 44.1% and 47.1% respectively, before going on to win back-to-back Bundesliga titles from 2010-2012.

Alas, with all the excitement surrounding Liverpool’s current form, there is still a major caveat hanging over their season: “excluding the Burnley game…” for all of Liverpool’s high intensity, swashbuckling attacking football they are more than capable of turning in a pallid shift like the one they did at Turf Moor in August. When a team’s defensive record is a poor as Liverpool’s, this is an issue.

Jurgen Klopp has overseen an impressive 73 league goals since his inauguration, more than any other manager in that time frame, however his side is also yet to record a clean sheet this season. Liverpool have recorded just eight PL clean sheets under Jurgen Klopp. To put that in perspective, none of the last three Premier League champions have had less than 15 during their winning season. To add to that, Klopp has conceded a whopping 50 goals. Until these defensive frailties are addressed, title talks may be premature.

Injuries have also been a problem for Klopp. The Suarez inspired Reds launched their now famous title charge in 2013/14 during a season in which they had no Champions League football to contend with. A less cluttered schedule allowed Liverpool to complete the regular season with only 46 reported injuries in 2013/14. Klopp recorded 59 last season and didn’t begin his Liverpool career until October. If you eliminate impact injuries and illness, Klopp oversaw 49 absences last period that could feasibly be laid at the feet of his playing philosophy.

Prior to Liverpool 5 – 1 drubbing of Hull City on 24th September, the Reds had covered an impressive 581.6 km. Liverpool teams under Klopp complete an average of 559 sprints per game, the most of any team in the Premier League. However, such large spikes in a player’s workload leave them more susceptible to sustaining injury, particularly if their training hasn’t been tailored to play this style of football. Given that Liverpool trained under Rodgers last pre-season, the injury woes are understandable.

With a full pre-season under his belt and no European distraction, Liverpool fans will hope that Klopp can keep the injury rate down. As seen with Leicester last season, the relative lack of disruption to the match-day squad can help a team build momentum. In a season top heavy with talented mangers and title contenders, this may be more important than ever. If Klopp can achieve this and replicate Brendan Rodgers’ sophomore effort (albeit without the considerable talents of a certain Uruguayan), Liverpool fans have every right to feel excited. Nevertheless, it would be wise to hold off on booking the open top bus just yet.