A Closer Look At The “November Jinx” At Arsenal

The narrative directed towards Arsenal this month is that of the “November Jinx” – the month in which the Gunners have reportedly performed the poorest since Arsene Wenger took charge 20 years ago. Therefore, TSZ is intrigued to test this theory and look at possible reasons as to why this might be the case. To explore this, we shall look at Arsenal’s points per game in the Premier League per month, whilst also looking into the goals scored and conceded compared to other months.

Firstly, we shall take a look at whether there is any truth in the belief that November is Arsenal’s worst month:

The points per game statistic doesn’t lie and clearly shows that indeed Arsenal’s worst month is November; in the 78 games they have played in November (up to but not including this season), they have picked up an average of 1.59 points per game, which is significantly lower than the average of the other nine months which is 2.03 points per game.

This so called “November Jinx” is quite mystifying considering it comes after Arsenal’s second and third strongest performing months; in September Arsenal have picked up 2.14 points per game and in October 2.15 points per game, whereas the strongest performing month has been March at 2.18 points per game. Next up, we shall a dig a little deeper and investigate Arsenal’s goals scored and conceded per game per month:

The month of November sees Arsenal score the fewest amount of goals per game with 1.63, which is well below the average of 1.91 across the other nine months. November is also the month that Arsenal concede the highest amount of goals per game with 1.22, higher than the average of 0.92 goals per game conceded in the other nine months.

With Arsenal collecting the most points in March, it seems as though it has been their defensive record which has allowed this; they concede just 0.76 goals per game here, the best record of any month. Their aforementioned second and third best performing months of September and October are due to their attacking exploits, with September seeing the greatest amount of goals scored per game with 2.13 and October in second place with 2.05 goals per game.

It appears then, that there is some substance in the “November Jinx” belief, but what are the possible explanations for their struggles?

Injuries
Injuries can strike at any time during the season of course, but looking back at the last few years, Arsenal seem to have been very unlucky with injuries in the month of November. In the last ten years, Arsenal have suffered 80 injuries during this time, and a cursory glance at these since 2009 reveals some key setbacks in November:

It seems as though lady luck has been cruel to Arsenal on the injury front in November in the last few seasons. With the news also filtering through that Bellerin will be out for 3-4 weeks this season and the uncertainty of a calf strain picked up by Alexis Sanchez on international duty, it’s starting to look like a similar story this year. It is therefore not surprising that Wenger often voices his concerns about players going away with their countries, as the multinational nature of his squad means a large proportion of them are faced with the demands of travelling around the world during international fixtures that always take place in November; no doubt these exertions take their toll on the players’ bodies.

Opponents
A look back at Arsenal’s fixtures in the last few seasons also sheds some light on why they have struggled in the month of November. Since the 2006/07 season, Arsenal have faced on average at least one of Tottenham, Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool or Chelsea in November; everyone would agree these are tough fixtures. In the last 10 years, only in one season have Arsenal not faced one of their rivals; this was the 2011/12 season where their points per game record for November was 2.33 compared to their average of 1.59. This November, Arsenal have already played one of their main rivals in Tottenham, dropping points in a 1-1 draw, whilst they also have Manchester United on the horizon as well as doing battle with PSG in a Champions League clash that could decide who tops the group.

The talk of a “November Jinx” around Arsenal does seem to have some justification around it; quite simply, November is the month they have the fewest points per game, they score the least amount of goals and they concede the greatest amount of goals per game under Wenger. However, a look back at both the injuries they have accumulated during November and the misfortunes thrown up by the fixture list reveals at least some of the contributing factors for this unfortunate hoodoo on Arsene Wenger’s team.