2016 Race To Dubai – The Nedbank Golf Challenge Preview

The Nedbank Golf Challenge hosted by Gary Player at the Sun City golf resort hosts the second event in the Race to Dubai (R2D) final series for the first time in the tournament’s history. The event was officially sanctioned by The Sunshine and European Tour in 2013 and progressed from a 12-player invitational to a 30-man field that was traditionally held at the end of the calendar year after both the PGA and European Tour season conclusion. As a result, the Nedbank will have been played twice during the 2015/16 season and sees an increase in field size to the top 72 players in the R2D, including 42 of the top 50.

The Nedbank Golf Challenge has seen some of the very best players in the game triumph around the Gary Player course, which is testament to the design and tournament hosts. Since its opening in 1979, it has been acknowledged as South Africa’s premier championship test of golf and has been home of the Nedbank Golf Challenge since 1981. Since the event was co-sanctioned by the Tour in 2013, there has been an average winning total of 19 under par. However, the average was just 14 under par between 2000 – 2012, prior to its sanctioning. Notably, Kaymer and Furyk both prospered with single digit totals, demonstrating how difficult the course can play in certain conditions.

Meaningfully, R2D leader Henrik Stenson won here in 2008 and was runner-up during last year’s edition. Furthermore, he could wrap up the Race to Dubai this week with a victory if Willett finished outside of the top 10 – and with the season Henrik has had to date along with Willett’s poor second half form, do not be surprised to see the race finished before the final event next week for the first time in the competitions history.

Last week’s Turkish Airlines Open saw a first time season winner in Danish player Thorbjorn Olesen, who gained a valuable 1,065,388 points and lifted him from 38th to ninth in the rankings with a total of 1,751,589. Haotong Li also made a significant move with a joint runner-up finish, gaining 557,778 points in the process and moving from 41st to 19th in the standings. Consequently, two players ranked inside the top 20 before the Turkish Airlines tournament dropped down the rankings with Thomas Pieters falling from 18th to 21st and Soren Kjeldsen from 19th to 23rd, effectively taking themselves out of the running for the R2D crown.

Since the introduction of the Nedbank Challenge on the European Tour in 2013, 13 of the current top 20 ranked R2D players have played in the event. Sergio Garcia leads the way in course form with an average position of second and has actually won the event twice back in 2001 and 2003. Willett averages third place with a victory in 2014/15 and fourth a year later. As discussed previously, Stenson’s course form makes him the firm favourite and he’s scored -16 and -13 in his two previous visits here. Notably, Jaidee and Oosthuizen are the only two players ranked inside the top 20 who have played in the previous three editions, averaging eighth and 11th respectively. Remarkably, Jaidee has never placed outside the top 10 in his last three visits, making him one to watch. With Oosthuizen having produced solid form around the Gary Player layout and playing in his home country, a player of his calibre can never be ruled out.

The 2015 edition saw Marc Leishman be victorious but he had no European Tour status during his win and therefore no current form was assessed. Nevertheless, pre-Nedbank, Thomas Bjorn’s form (average of previous five tournaments) was arguably poor with an average finish position of 55th, with just one top 25 finish. However, Danny Willett’s form was strong with an average of 25th position, yielding two top 25’s and a top 10. Unlike Willett where form was essential to his victory, Bjorn relied on years of experience as a professional and was able to positively turn around his fortunes. Furthermore, with the Gary Player layout being notoriously challenging, experience is essential.

With only two events remaining of the R2D, the goal to finish as high as possible in the race is still important for those not realistically in with a chance of winning due to the large financial bonuses available.

Stenson again leads the way with an average position of third, whilst Willett sits last averaging a lowly 42nd, further enhancing the Swede’s position as favourite. Wiesberger’s end of season form is as good as any player at present with an average position of eighth, including another top 10 finish at the Turkish – making him an outsider to watch. Westwood’s form of late has been poor, averaging 40th position, however, winning back-to-back titles at the Nedbank in 2010 and 2011 could provide him with the belief to make a strong finish.

The Gary Player golf course was designed with the purpose of being South Africa’s leading championship course and is regarded from many as the ‘African Major’. The 7,831-yard course rewards long and straight drives and allows little room for error from the tee, with testing rough and bush lining many fairways. The course demands premium driving and approach play accuracy, which is proven none-more so than the list of past champions such as Stenson, Westwood, Kaymer, Els and Garcia to name a few. Therefore, the average ranking for driving accuracy and green in regulation (GIR) combined highlights the individuals whose game suit the course best.

Once again, Stenson justifies his favourite selection this week as he leads fairway accuracy and ranks fourth in GIR, averaging third overall and leads by some margin over the rest of the top 20. Garcia’s course form is perhaps justified by his notoriously strong long game, ranking 42nd in fairways and seventh in GIR, providing him with a standout chance of gaining valuable points this week. Molinari will be playing just his eighth event on the European circuit this week but with a fairway accuracy ranking of second and 31st overall, he could be seen as the most efficient golfer during the 2016 R2D. Notably, Sullivan’s name has not been mentioned as much in recent months, however with an average ranking of 31st – joint third best – and two victories in South Africa in recent years, his game and familiarity to the conditions could be in his favour.

At the opposite end, Willett again struggles, ranking 133rd in fairway accuracy, and although he has triumphed around Sun City before, his game and chances of winning the R2D are fading quickly. Olesen and Li have both stormed their way into contention but to keep moving forwards will require a strong week around a layout that does not particularly suit their games.

Conclusion
As the second to last tournament of the season there is a high probability that the Race to Dubai will be completed this week due to Stenson’s course and current form and superior tee to green skills favouring the layout. Nevertheless, such a demanding course requires few mistakes and Stenson winning is far from a foregone conclusion. Form heading into the event for the younger players is essential with Weinberger (4th), Hatton (10th) and Sullivan (25th) all having strong weeks during the Turkish Airlines Open. Alternatively, experience and course form could serve as a strong indicator for Garcia, Westwood and Jaidee. One thing is for certain this week, few mistakes will be permitted and the winner must be on top of their game from the tee to succeed.