UFC Fight Night: Guilherme Pat vs Thomas Petersen Preview & Prediction
Click here for today’s sports betting tips from our expert analysts!
Two heavyweights go at it as prospect Brazilian Guilherme Pat looks to stay perfect against the more experienced Thomas Petersen.
Guilherme Pat vs Thomas Petersen facts
What time are Guilherme Pat and Thomas Petersen expected to walk out?
Where is UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Duncan? Meta Apex, Enterprise, USA
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Duncan? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC Fight Night 272
What TV channel is UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Duncan on? UK – TNT Sports / USA – Paramount
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Duncan? UK – TNT Sports can stream the event online via the TNT Sports website and HBO Max / USA – Paramount+ & UFC Fight Pass
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Duncan main card
Renato Moicano vs Chris Duncan (Lightweight)
Virna Jandiroba vs Tabatha Ricci (Women’s Strawweight)
Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev vs Brendson Ribeiro (Light Heavyweight)
Ethyn Ewing vs Rafael Estevam (Bantamweight)
Tommy McMillen vs Manolo Zecchini (Featherweight)
Jose Mauro Delano vs Robert Ruchala (Featherweight)
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Duncan prelims
Guilherme Pat vs Thomas Petersen (Heavyweight)
Alessandro Costa vs Stewart Nicoll (Flyweight)
Lando Vannata vs Darrius Flowers (Lightweight)
Alice Pereira vs Hailey Cowan (Women’s Bantamweight)
Azamat Bekoev vs Tresean Gore (Middleweight)
Dione Barbosa vs Melissa Gatto (Women’s Flyweight)
Guilherme Pat: Can the Brazilian powerhouse keep his perfect record intact?
Guilherme Pat (6-0) is a heavy-handed prospect in the heavyweight division, arriving in the UFC after a saga that saw him denied a US visa four times before finally making his promotional debut in December 2025. The Brazilian showed enough in a unanimous decision win over Allen Frye Jr. to suggest the wait was worth it. Pat possesses a hands-low boxing style that compensates with sharper head movement, a nasty slip-and-rip game, and knockout power that can carry into the later rounds of the fight. Still raw and clearly improving between outings, the ceiling for "Kong" at 265 pounds looks promising.
Thomas Petersen: Experienced grappler looking to derail the unbeaten prospect
Thomas Petersen (10-4) is a former LFA heavyweight champion and has been a mixed bag since joining the UFC. His wins over Mohammed Usman and Don'Tale Mayes showed he can grind out results, but knockout losses to both Shamil Gaziev and most recently Vitor Petrino have exposed a consistent vulnerability - he's open on the feet, tends to put his head down and swing wildly in exchanges, and gasses out in the later rounds. His path to victory almost exclusively runs through grappling and takedowns, with limited striking ability to fall back on when those attempts are stuffed.
Guilherme Pat vs Thomas Petersen prediction
The stylistic matchup here is pretty clear. Petersen's only realistic route to victory is getting Pat to the floor and grinding it out, but Pat's bigger frame and physicality should make that a difficult task. Petersen's takedown attempts often lack setup, which becomes more of a problem against a heavyweight with Pat's strength.
On the feet, this should be a relatively comfortable night for the Brazilian. Petersen sits considerably lower in his stance than Pat, creating a range disadvantage that is only amplified by Pat's frame, allowing Pat's straight shots to find a home freely. Shamil Gaziev, a rangy striker comparable to Pat but with slower hands, was still able to land clean straights on Petersen repeatedly before finishing him. Pat carries faster hands and more natural power, and Petersen's habit of swinging wildly with his head down in exchanges is precisely the kind of invitation Pat's slip-and-rip game was built for. Petersen was completely gassed and hands by his sides by the third round against Petrino, if this fight isn't over by then, that could be where Pat finally puts his lights out.
The risk in this fight is that Pat's takedown defence and ground game haven't been seriously tested at the UFC level yet. If Petersen can find his shots early and drag this to the mat repeatedly, there's definitely a path to victory. That said, the tools simply aren't there for Petersen on the feet, and the expectation is that Pat finds him before it gets to that point.
Prediction: Guilherme Pat to win by KO/TKO
