UFC Fight Night: Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim Preview & Prediction

Click here for today’s sports betting tips from our expert analysts!

Two fighters in desperate need of a win collide on the prelims, as Francisco Prado drops down to lightweight to face Ismael Bonfim.

Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim facts

What time are Francisco Prado and Ismael Bonfim expected to walk out? 11 October 2026 at 12:35 am

Where is UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan? Meta Apex, Enterprise, USA

Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC Fight Night 290

What TV channel is UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan on? UK – TNT Sports / USA – Paramount

Where can I stream UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan? UK – TNT Sports can stream the event online via the TNT Sports website and HBO Max / USA – Paramount+ & UFC Fight Pass

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan main card

Brendan Allen vs Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweight)

Matheus Camilo vs Jai Herbert (Lightweight)

Loopy Godinez vs Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweight)

Andre Fili vs Kai Kamaka III (Featherweight)

Malcolm Wellmaker vs Otari Tanzilovi (Bantamweight)

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Duncan prelims

Julius Walker vs Gerald Meerschaert (Light Heavyweight)

Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim (Lightweight)

Niko Price vs Leon Shahbazyan (Welterweight)

Felipe Franco vs Brendson Ribeiro (Light Heavyweight)

Allen Frye Jr. vs RJ Harris (Heavyweight)

Alice Pereira vs Darya Zheleznyakova (Women's Bantamweight)

Ernesta Kareckaite vs Melissa Gatto (Women's Flyweight)

Francisco Prado: The Argentinian seeks to find new lease of life in a new weight class

1-5 in the promotion since signing as an undefeated prospect, a defeat on Saturday night could legitimately spell the end of a UFC tenure for Francisco Prado (12-5). The 24 year old Argentinian has lost four in a row, with just a single victory over Ottman Azaitar during his time in the promotion. Prado is known for his toughness and durability; he’s technically very sound, although he’s frequently struggled to impose his will in his fights to great detriment. He drops down to lightweight for this fight, having lost all four bouts of his time at 170 pounds. 

Ismael Bonfim: What does the elder Bonfim brother have left in the tank?

Ismael Bonfim (20-7) enters this matchup riding a three fight losing skid, with all three of those defeats coming by way of stoppage. 2-4 in the UFC to date, big things were expected of the elder Bonfim sibling following a stunning flying knee KO over Terrance McKinney in his debut, but he’s fallen off drastically in comparison to his high flying brother, Gabriel. Bonfim does his best work with his boxing and has a nasty submission game to fall back on, but he’s been prone to capitulating when a quick finish doesn’t materialise.

Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim prediction

Yikes. If “Marreta” can’t win this one, this really is the end of the line for the elder Bonfim brother.

On paper, Bonfim should take this. Prado is riding a four fight skid, and while Bonfim has lost three in a row himself, he’s been losing to some really solid contenders at lightweight. Axel Sola, Chris Padilla, and Nazim Sadykhov are some of the better names floating outside of the rankings at 155 pounds.

However, it’s the manner of those defeats that has me leaning towards the Argentinian. Bonfim has been getting stopped every time he loses and tends to completely fall apart in short order when he’s unable to find an early finish; he looked utterly hopeless against Axel Sola last time out. By contrast, while Prado has been losing, he’s been doing so up a weight class and making it to the scorecards each time. He’s never been finished, and I don’t think that what remains of Bonfim has what it takes to change that.

I think Bonfim starts aggressively and swiftly crumbles when he realizes that Prado isn’t going anywhere, leading to the Argentinian walking him down and eventually finding a finish.

Prediction: Francisco Prado to win by stoppage