Bulgaria vs Iceland Preview & Prediction | 2026-27 UEFA Nations League | League C
by Alex Sarwar ·
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Three points is a must here for Bulgaria at home to group leaders Iceland if they are to stand a chance of automatic promotion to League B heading into the final round of matches.
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Key stats
- Iceland won the only previous Nations League meeting between the sides, 3-0 in Reykjavik on Matchday 3 of this edition.
- Coming into Matchday 5, Iceland lead Group C4 with eight points, two ahead of Estonia, with Bulgaria third on four points.
- Iceland are unbeaten in this edition (W2 D2) and have kept three consecutive clean sheets, their longest such run in 26 Nations League matches.
- Iceland have conceded only once in four matches in this edition, having conceded 55 goals in 26 Nations League matches overall (2.12 per game).
- Iceland went winless in their first 14 Nations League matches (D4 L10) but have won four of their 12 since, including their two biggest wins in 26 Nations League matches, 3-0 at Luxembourg and 3-0 at home to Bulgaria in this edition.
- Iceland finished bottom of their League A group without a point in both 2018/19 and 2020/21, losing all ten matches.
- Bulgaria are winless in their last five home Nations League matches (D3 L2) since a 1-0 win over Northern Ireland on 8 September 2024.
- Bulgaria's 2-0 win in Luxembourg on Matchday 4 was their first win of this edition.
- Bulgaria finished second in Group C3 in 2024/25 but lost both legs of their play-off 2-1 to the Republic of Ireland.
- Bulgaria have won two of their four Nations League matches on Matchday 5 (D1 L1), while Iceland have won one of three (L2).
- Kiril Despodov has scored five goals in 18 Nations League appearances, the most of any Bulgaria player.
- Orri Oskarsson has scored eight goals in 12 Nations League appearances, twice as many as any other Iceland player.
Bulgaria vs Iceland prediction
If Bulgaria are to pick up what would be only their second win of the group stage, they'll need to find a way through a rock-solid Icelandic defence, which has proven key to the visitors' success in Group C4. Iceland are unbeaten after four matches, picking up eight points and registering three consecutive clean sheets.
The last time these two teams collided, Iceland ran out comfortable 3-0 winners in Reykjavik, so they have every reason to be confident coming into this one. Bulgaria bounced back nicely from that result with a 0-2 victory in Luxembourg, but they'll need to be at their very best to topple Arnar Gunnlaugsson's side.
In the end, it's difficult to see this Bulgarian unit breaching Iceland's backline. A point would be a good result for the visitors, so don't expect them to take many risks going forward. Instead, they're likely to prioritise the defensive stability that has served them so well of late and with that in mind, backing them via the double chance market warrants serious consideration.
Bulgaria vs Iceland tip: Double chance - Draw/Iceland
