September 15, 2023 1:14 PM
Ewan Lavender

MMA Preview – Fernando Padilla vs Kyle Nelson at UFC Fight Night 227

Click here for today’s sports betting tips from our expert analysts!


When is UFC Noche? Sunday 17th September, 2023 - 01:00 start (UK)

Where is UFC Noche? T-Mobile Arena, Paradise, Nevada (US)

Where can I get tickets for UFC Noche? Click here to buy tickets for UFC Fight Night

What channel is UFC Noche on? TNT Sports 1

Where can I stream UFC Noche? TNT Sports subscribers can stream the fight online via the TNT Sports website and Discovery+

For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!


Fernando Padilla (15-4) has a spring in his step as he gets to make his second UFC appearance on Mexican Independence Day. He is also fresh off first-round knockout win on debut over Julian Erosa in April to make it three wins on the bounce including two knockouts.

Kyle Nelson (14-5-1) is also fresh off a win which came with great relief back at UFC 289. He had not experienced that winning feeling since 2019 when he TKO’d Polo Reyes. Since then he has got starched by Billy Quarantillo (2020), outpointed by Jai Herbert (2022) as well as fighting to a draw with Doo Ho Choi.


Padilla will boast his usual reach advantage and will have five inches in reach over Nelson. However, he does not leverage it will as he prefers to inflict his damage in the pocket. He is very dangerous, but Nelson will welcome trading at close range.

This will be risky for both fighters as they both possess knockout power especially Nelson. The Canadian also has some decent wrestling in the locker, but we are expecting the majority of this to remain on the feet.

This should be a very competitive scrap and we feel Padilla has the diversity and volume to sway the judges at least. That said, his defence is suspect and considering how hard Nelson hits along with the wide odds, he is a great shout.

Prediction: Padilla via KO/TKO

Value bet: Nelson to win

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