Geelong vs Hawthorn Preview & Prediction | 2025 AFL | Preliminary Final
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A rested Geelong will be aiming to book their spot in the 2025 AFL Grand Final when they face a red-hot Hawthorn, a team riding a wave of finals momentum, in a blockbuster Preliminary Final at the MCG.
Kick-off date/time:
How to watch on TV: UK – TNT Sports / US – Some matches are televised on Fox Sports channels
How to watch online: UK – discovery+ & Watch AFL / US – Watch AFL
The prediction
Geelong was simply dominant in the Qualifying Final, systematically dismantling Brisbane by 38 points to earn a week off. Their suffocating pressure and clinical ball movement were on full display in a performance that solidified their premiership credentials.
Hawthorn is in scintillating form, becoming just the second team in history to reach a preliminary final from eighth spot. They are coming off a stunning 34-point semi-final victory over minor premiers Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval, their second consecutive interstate finals win after disposing of the GWS Giants in Sydney a week earlier.
Key Players:
Geelong's dynamic winger Oliver Dempsey was a standout against Brisbane in the QF, providing relentless run and hitting the scoreboard. He was instrumental in the Cats' victory, finishing with 25 disposals and a team-high 3 goals in a polished performance.
Hawthorn midfielder Jai Newcombe produced one of the great individual finals performances in the win over Adelaide. The midfield bull was unstoppable at the contest, setting the tone from the opening bounce and finishing with 28 disposals, a game-high 16 contested possessions, and 10 score involvements (including a goal).
Head-to-Head:
The Cats have won the last three encounters between the sides, including a hard-fought 7-point victory in Round 6 of this season. However, the Hawks possess a remarkable piece of history, with Geelong having not defeated them in a knockout final since the 1963 Grand Final.
These two iconic teams have met 83 times since 1980 and it’s 42-41 in favour of the Hawks. In finals they have clashed six times since 2000 and it again favours the Hawks 4-2.
The Cats enter refreshed and as deserved favourites, but the Hawks are playing with a belief that has already seen them topple the competition's best. We see another gripping contest with a grand final prize on the line. Despite plenty of pressure from both sides to be applied early, the points should flow, making the total over points look appealing.
Geelong vs Hawthorn tip: Total match points over 167.5
