Five Reasons Why England Can Beat Australia In The ICC Cricket World Cup Semi-Final
Whisper it gently if you are of English persuasion, but Thursday’s ICC Cricket World Cup semi-final against Australia could be the biggest clash between the two of 2019, even in an Ashes summer. The holders defend their trophy at Edgbaston in the final four with the stats all pointing to the hosts for a variety of different reasons.
The Stats Zone approached the match from five angles to give you the detailed data behind this belter in Birmingham.
1. THE BEST TWO TEAMS UP TOP
Coming into the tournament, all the talk was of 500 scores and bowlers being smashed to smithereens by willow-wielding stars. Bearing all of that in mind, it’s something of a surprise that England’s 54.22 is the best average score in the opening powerplay among the semi-finalists, coming with the average loss of one wicket. The tally would have been far better on both fronts if discounting matches where Jason Roy was absent through injury and he shared a 160 opening stand with Jonny Bairstow the last time England played on this ground, against India. For their part, Australia’s opening partnership has survived the first ten overs on an incredible six occasions from nine outings, showing the strength of Aaron Finch and David Warner in laying platforms for their innings.
2. EDGBASTON IS ENGLAND'S!
Glenn McGrath treading on that ball? Malcom, Gough and Caddick skittling the Aussies on the opening day? Botham’s ‘Michelle’ (five-for) snatching victory from the jaws of defeat in 1981? Actually, recent white-ball history against the old enemy on this ground is less-feted but no less impressive! England are unbeaten at Edgbaston in ODIs against Australia this century with three wins and two no results from their five meetings, including victory in the 2004 ICC Champions Trophy semi-final. Furthermore, they have won 13 of 21 against all-comers since the millennium, with three other matches washed out.
3. GO BIG OR GO HOME!
Of the 31 World Cup centuries in the group stage, 21 were recorded between the four teams in the semis. England boast the greatest range of ton-compilers with five to date, well ahead of India (three), Australia (two) and New Zealand (Kane Williamson).
4. ADIL RASHID: SECRET WEAPON?
In the latest edition of the Silly Point podcast, Rob Esteva noted that no spinners were in the top 15 wicket-takers for the tournament so far, completely at odds with recent ODI history, where the twirlers have dominated. But from their last four ODIs in Birmingham (all won), Adil Rashid has taken ten wickets despite 0/40 off six in his last outing there, in the group stage against India. For good measure, he capped off the heavy win over New Zealand with a finely-crafted 69 with the bat as well.
5. TO CHASE IS NOT THE ACE
From 41 completed matches at the ICC Cricket World Cup to date, 27 (65.9%) have been won by the team defending a score in the second innings. Australia’s only two defeats came when chasing 300+ scores against India and South Africa and, likewise, England’s failures have all come when batting second. Critically, when you look at matches between these two, Australia won both their warm-up match and a Group Stage encounter against England by successfully defending scores, meaning that to bat first will be the likely call from the winning captain at the toss if prevailing conditions don’t suggest otherwise.
