Wales vs Japan Preview & Prediction | 2026 Nations Championship | Round 4
by Trystan Pugh ·
Click here for today’s sports betting tips from our expert analysts!
Wales host Japan at the Principality Stadium on Saturday in Round Four of the 2026 Nations Championship.
Start date/time:
How to watch on TV: UK – ITV / USA – Not televised
How to watch online: UK – ITVX / USA – RugbyPass TV
Wales team news: Llewellyn and James paired in the centre
Squad: Blair Murray; Louis Rees-Zammit, Eddie James, Max Llewellyn, Josh Adams; Sam Costelow, Tomos Williams; Nicky Smith, Dewi Lake (capt), Archie Griffin; Dafydd Jenkins, Ben Carter; Alex Mann, Jac Morgan, Aaron Wainwright
Replacements: Elias, Carre, Francis, Teddy Williams, Botham, Reuben Morgan-Williams, Dan Edwards, Hennessey
Japan team news: Kitahara starts at fly-half
Squad: Kazuma Ueda; Kippei Ishida, Dylan Riley, Samisoni Tua, Inoke Burua; Riku Kitahara, Naoto Saito; Yota Kamimori, Mamoru Harada, Shuhei Takeuchi; Harry Hockings, Warner Dearns (capt); Ben Gunter, Kanji Shimokawa, Jack Cornelsen
Replacements: Kenji Sato, Kojiro Otsuka, Opeti Helu, Michael Stolberg, Tiennan Costley, Kenta Fukuda, Shinya Komura, Jisu Lee
Wales vs Japan prediction
These are two sides in similar positions, with Wales fifth in the Northern Hemisphere table and Japan fifth in the south. Both had mixed opening legs. Wales beat Fiji before losing to Argentina and South Africa in Durban, while Japan stunned Italy before heavy defeats to Ireland and France. Japan have since lost 34-28 to Fiji on 24 October, in Jake White’s first game as Fiji coach.
History favours the hosts. Wales won two of the three meetings last July, 24-23 and 31-22, with Japan taking the other 24-19, and Eddie Jones has pointed out that his side have never won at the Principality Stadium.
Wales head coach Steve Tandy has paired Max Llewellyn alongside Eddie James in midfield, and Dewi Lake captains the side from hooker. Sam Costelow starts at fly-half, while Louis Rees-Zammit is still looking for his best form since returning from the NFL, having been a bona-fide star prior to switching sports. Wales face Australia and New Zealand in the next two weeks, so a second win of the competition here matters.
A debutant fly-half facing a settled Welsh pack in Cardiff is a tough assignment, but Japan’s pace means the hosts may not have it all their own way early on. With Wales the stronger side overall, we are backing the double result, with Wales leading at half-time and winning the game.
Wales vs Japan tip: Double result – Wales / Wales
