Scotland vs New Zealand Preview & Prediction | 2026 Nations Championship | Round 4
by Trystan Pugh ·
Click here for today’s sports betting tips from our expert analysts!
Scotland host New Zealand at Murrayfield on Saturday in Round 4 of the 2026 Nations Championship.
Start date/time:
How to watch on TV: UK – ITV / USA – Not televised
How to watch online: UK – ITVX / USA – RugbyPass TV
Scotland team news: Russell and Tuipulotu return
Squad: Kyle Rowe; Kyle Steyn, Huw Jones, Sione Tuipulotu (capt), Jamie Dobie; Finn Russell, Ben White; Rory Sutherland, Ewan Ashman, Zander Fagerson; Gregor Brown, Scott Cummings; Matt Fagerson, Rory Darge, Jack Dempsey
Replacements: Gregor Hiddleston, Pierre Schoeman, Will Hurd, Max Williamson, Josh Baylish, George Horne, Tom Jordan, Blair Kinghorn
New Zealand team news: Centurions Barrett and Taylor start
Squad: Beauden Barrett; Will Jordan, Quinn Tupaea, Jordie Barrett, Josh Moorby; Damian McKenzie, Cam Roigard; Ethan de Groot, Codie Taylor (capt), Fletcher Newell; Scott Barrett, Fabian Holland; Tupou Vaa'i, Peter Lakai, Wallace Sititi
Replacements: Asafo Aumua, George Bower, Pasilio Tosi, Christian Lio-Willie, Anton Segner, Cortez Ratima, Timoci Tavatavanawai, Rieko Ioane
Scotland vs New Zealand prediction
Scotland are still hunting a first win over New Zealand in one of rugby’s oldest fixtures. The All Blacks have won 31 of the 33 meetings, with the other two drawn, but last year’s game showed how close it can get. New Zealand led 17-0 at half-time, Scotland had levelled at 17-17 going into the final quarter, and Damian McKenzie’s late try and penalty sealed a 25-17 win. It was the fourth meeting in a row decided by eight points or fewer.
The build-up could not be more different. Murrayfield is Scotland’s first Test since July, while the All Blacks have played six since then, losing a 3-1 series to South Africa before beating Australia 50-19 in Auckland and 43-21 in Sydney.
Scotland’s route into the game runs through Finn Russell and a midfield of Huw Jones and captain Sione Tuipulotu, with Kyle Steyn a threat out wide and Jack Dempsey busy at the breakdown. The lack of depth is their longstanding problem, and it has become more obvious since teams were allowed eight replacements. A cloudy, wet afternoon in Edinburgh with temperatures of 7-10C could help keep the scoreline tight.
Scotland should stay in touch for long periods, as they have in recent meetings, but New Zealand’s form and bench strength mean they are likely to find a way, as they usually do in this fixture. We are backing a New Zealand win by 1-12 points.
Scotland vs New Zealand tip: New Zealand to win by 1-12 points
