UFC Fight Night 289: Melissa Amaya vs Valesca Machado Preview & Prediction

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The Ultimate Fighter 34 strawweight crown is on the line as Team Cormier teammates Melissa Amaya and Tina Black collide in the season finale.

Melissa Amaya vs Valesca Machado facts

What time are Melissa Amaya and Valesca Machado expected to walk out? 27 September 2026 at 1:45 am

Where is UFC Fight Night 289: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos? Meta Apex, Enterprise, USA

Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night 289: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC Fight Night 289

What TV channel is UFC Fight Night 289: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos on? UK – TNT Sports / USA – Paramount

Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 289: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos? UK – TNT Sports can stream the event online via the TNT Sports website and HBO Max / USA – Paramount+ & UFC Fight Pass

UFC Fight Night 289: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos main card

Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni Barcelos (Bantamweight)

Norma Dumont vs Ailin Perez (Women's Bantamweight)

Luis Hernandez vs Sedriques Dumas (Light Heavyweight)

Mehemmedeli Osmanli vs Ilimbek Akylbek Uulu (Bantamweight)

Melissa Amaya vs Valesca Machado (Women's Strawweight)

UFC Fight Night 289: Rosas Jr. vs Barcelos prelims

Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura (Bantamweight)

Rodolfo Vieira vs Robert Bryczek (Middleweight)

Rodolfo Bellato vs Christian Edwards (Light Heavyweight)

Josiah Harrell vs Elves Brener vs Josiah Harrell (Lightweight)

Montel Jackson vs Ricky Simon (Bantamweight)

John Castaneda vs Alateng Heili (Bantamweight)

Vanessa Demopoulos vs Yazmin Jauregui (Women's Strawweight)

Melissa Amaya: “Mamba” looks to complete her run

Melissa Amaya (8-0) came into TUF 34 as an afterthought and is now one win away from the trophy. She submitted Michael Bisping’s top strawweight pick, Anna Melisano, in the opening round of the show, then survived a barrage of submission attempts from Gigi Canuto before stopping her with ground and pound in the second. Amaya is tough, gritty and physical for the division, pressing forward and dragging opponents to the mat to grind them down with ground and pound and submission threats. Her striking isn’t high level, but it has steadily improved over the years.

Valesca Machado: Former Invicta champion chasing her UFC dream

Valesca “Tina Black” Machado (15-4, 1 NC) was Daniel Cormier’s first pick at strawweight and backed it up, stopping Natalia Alves in the second round before outpointing Delphine Benouaich in one of the fights of the season. Black is light on her feet with a fast step-in jab and clean straight boxing combinations, mixing in low kicks and head kicks. The problem is she gets wild in the pocket, with no head movement and a high chin, and she can slip into phases of low volume chasing the perfect shot.

Melissa Amaya vs Valesca Machado prediction

Black has the far deeper resume, having won Invicta gold and never been finished across twenty pro bouts, and she’s the more technical fighter overall. However, neither woman has been tested against top-level competition, and in a matchup at this level, grit and will to win can count for a lot. That’s where Amaya has the edge, she’s shown heart and determination across her fights.

Black doesn’t always impose herself on opponents or fight on the front foot, so expect Amaya to dictate the pace, marching forward and forcing exchanges. Black’s straight boxing will land, and she has the power to hurt Amaya when she lets her hands go, but her lack of defence in the pocket means Amaya will find her too, or be able to time a takedown. This should be a close, back-and-forth fight at a high pace.

Amaya will look for the leg trip in the clinch to get the fight to the floor, once there, her physicality should take over. Black is capable on the ground, but Amaya is stronger. I can see heart and determination pulling Amaya across the finishing line for the underdog story.

Prediction: Melissa Amaya to win by decision