UFC 329: Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista Preview & Prediction
The bantamweight division’s premier gatekeeper meets its hottest contender, as Cory Sandhagen runs it back with Mario Bautista seven years after submitting him in the first round.
Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista facts
What time are Cory Sandhagen and Mario Bautista expected to walk out?
Where is UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2? T-Mobile Arena, Paradise, USA
Where can I get tickets for UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC 329
What TV channel is UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 on? UK – TNT Sports / USA – Paramount
Where can I stream UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2? UK – TNT Sports can stream the event online via the TNT Sports website and HBO Max / USA – Paramount+ & UFC Fight Pass
UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 main card
Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway 2 (Welterweight)
Benoit Saint-Denis vs Paddy Pimblett (Lightweight)
Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista (Bantamweight)
Brandon Royval vs Lone'er Kavanagh (Flyweight)
King Green vs Terrance McKinney (Lightweight)
UFC 329: McGregor vs Holloway 2 prelims
Robert Whittaker vs Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight)
Gable Steveson vs Elisha Ellison (Heavyweight)
Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian Yanez (Bantamweight)
Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III (Featherweight)
Tracy Cortez vs Wang Cong (Women's Flyweight)
Damian Pinas vs Cesar Almeida (Middleweight)
Farid Basharat vs John Garza (Bantamweight)
Ryan Gandra vs Zachary Reese (Middleweight)
Alessandro Costa vs Cody Durden (Flyweight)
Cory Sandhagen: “The Sandman” and the golden gatekeeper
Cory Sandhagen (18-6) has spent nearly a decade as the measuring stick at 135. The #4 ranked “Sandman” has only ever lost to the elite of the elite – Aljamain Sterling, TJ Dillashaw, Petr Yan, Umar Nurmagomedov, and most recently a one-sided title loss to was-champion Merab Dvalishvili, and has never been stopped on the feet. A rangy, switch-stance technician with flying knees and creative angles, he’s picked apart the who’s-who of the division across two eras, from Frankie Edgar and Marlon Moraes to Song Ya Dong and Deiveson Figueiredo. His only weakness is his takedown defence against elite wrestling.
Mario Bautista: Surging contender chasing his first shot at gold
Mario Bautista (17-3) is a very different fighter to the debutant Sandhagen tapped back in 2019. The #5 ranked contender has rebuilt himself into one of the division’s more in-form fighters, stacking wins over Da’Mon Blackshear, Ricky Simon, Jose Aldo, Patchy Mix, and most recently dominated Vinicius Oliveira sending him up a weight division. His eight-fight win streak was snapped by a competitive decision to Umar Nurmagomedov, but that’s when he bounced back emphatically against Oliveira. Bautista is well-rounded, but it’s his wrestling and grappling that he leans on against the division’s best.
Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista prediction
The bookies have Sandhagen as a slight favourite, and that feels about right for the division’s ultimate title-shot guardian. Everything Bautista does, Sandhagen has already seen at the very highest level, but the reverse can’t be said, Cory can show dimensions that Mario hasn’t had to encounter yet.
On the feet, Sandhagen holds the edge. He’s the sharper, rangier, more creative striker, and the one man in this fight who can genuinely hurt the other, which should make Bautista’s usual forward pressure a riskier proposition. Bautista’s best boxing lives in the pocket, but Sandhagen won’t let it play at that range, he’ll work behind longer strikes and reset the range every time it gets close.
The live angle for Bautista is the same one Merab and Umar exploited – Sandhagen’s takedown defence can crack against the elite. If Mario can consistently plant him and drag this into the scrambles, there’s a real path to victory, and his fresher legs and title-shot hunger shouldn’t be discounted. But Bautista’s grappling, as good as it is, may not be at that level, and I trust Sandhagen’s experience and striking to keep this at range.
This, the highest level fight on display on this card, will be a great watch. Don’t miss it.
Prediction: Cory Sandhagen to win
