UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki Preview & Prediction
Two lightweights meet in a classic wrestler VS striker match up, control wrestler Grant Dawson takes on Polish brawler Mateusz Rebecki on the prelims.
Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki facts
What time are Grant Dawson and Mateusz Rebecki expected to walk out?
Where is UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland? Prudential Center, Newark, USA
Where can I get tickets for UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC 328
What TV channel is UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland on? UK – TNT Sports / USA – Paramount
Where can I stream UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland? UK – TNT Sports can stream the event online via the TNT Sports website and HBO Max / USA – Paramount+ & UFC Fight Pass
UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland main card
Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland (Middleweight)
Joshua Van vs Tatsuro Taira (Flyweight)
Alexander Volkov vs Waldo-Cortes Acosta (Heavyweight)
Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley (Welterweight)
King Green vs Jeremy Stephens (Lightweight)
UFC 328: Chimaev vs Strickland prelims
Ateba Gautier vs Osman Diaz (Middleweight)
Joel Alvarez vs Yaroslav Amosov (Welterweight)
Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight)
Jim Miller vs Jared Gordon (Lightweight)
Roman Kopylov vs Marco Tulio (Middleweight)
Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis (Featherweight)
Baisangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos (Middleweight)
Clayton Carpenter vs Jose Ochoa (Flyweight)
Grant Dawson: Can the wrestler find his way back to the rankings on home soil?
Grant Dawson (23-3-1) returns to the Prudential Center where he last beat Joe Solecki at UFC 302, but now finds himself trying to bounce back from a brutal first-round knockout loss to hot prospect Manuel Torres. Before that, the 32-year-old had picked up a decision win over Diego Ferreira and a round two finish over Rafa Garcia. Dawson is a high-level control grappler who pieces wins together with his takedowns and top pressure. He has a concern with his striking, getting visibly timid against opponents with power, throwing looping overhands with his head off centre line as a worry of the return fire, which normally leaves him exposed to the very counters he’s afraid of.
Mateusz Rebecki: Polish power puncher looking to overturn his recent slide with a knockout
Mateusz Rebecki (20-4) has dropped three of his last four fights, but this skid deserves some context, every loss has come against dangerous/ top contenders, with his most recent setback being a majority decision against Ludovit Klein. He’s edged out an impressive split decision win over Myktybek Orolbai in a fight of the year contender, absolute war. Rebecki carries power in his hands, throws with volume, and has shown he can explode out of bad positions and work his way back to his feet against decent wrestlers. His last three fights have all been Fight of the Night candidates, Rebecki simply doesn’t know how to be in a boring fight.
Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki prediction
The bookies have Dawson as the favourite, but this is a 50/50 fight that’s been priced almost entirely off the back of Diego Ferreira – a man who beat Rebecki by knockout but lost to Dawson on the scorecards. The finishing threat in this matchup sits firmly on Rebecki’s side, which is why I see this fight being more even than the bookies give it.
Dawson will likely approach this similarly to how he approached the Torres fight – timid, worried about the power on the feet, and overly reliant on getting the fight to the ground. The difference here is that Rebecki isn’t as sharp of a technician that Torres is, but he still absolutely cracks. When Dawson overswings on his looping overhand, he leaves his head on a platter, and Rebecki has the power to make him pay. If Dawson doesn’t set up his takedowns, the uppercut would be an open shot to land on the chin as well.
Dawson got Ferreira down onto the mat due to Ferreira losing patience and swinging without timing and care. Rebecki has to be more disciplined, pick his moments when Dawson overswings, or back up the wrestler to fence to unload with longer combinations. If he goes wild like Diego did, he’ll be put on his back exactly the same and the rounds will tick away losing him the decision. But if he picks his shots correctly, the power will deter Dawson away from engaging properly, the takedown attempts will become predictable, and then it’s just a matter of time before he lands the kill shot.
Prediction: Mateusz Rebecki to win by KO/TKO
