November 27, 2022 9:59 AM
Adam Evans

Canada vs Australia – Final – Preview & Prediction | 2022 Davis Cup Finals

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THE FACTS

When is Canada vs Australia on and what time does it start? Canada vs Australia will take place on Sunday 27th November, 2022 – not before 12:00 (UK)

Where is Canada vs Australia taking place? Canada vs Australia will take place at Martin Carpena in Malaga, Spain

What surface is Canada vs Australia being played on? Canada vs Australia will take place on an indoor hard court

Where can I get tickets for Canada vs Australia? Visit this link for the latest ticket information for Canada vs Australia

What channel is Canada vs Australia on in the UK? The Davis Cup Finals will not be televised live in the UK

Where can I stream Canada vs Australia in the UK? Tennis Channel subscribers can stream the Davis Cup Finals

THE LOWDOWN

Canada had to dig deep on Saturday to come back from 1-0 down after Lorenzo Sonego got the better of Denis Shapovalov in a mammoth three-setter. World number six Felix Auger-Aliassime has been near-perfect this week, though, to see them through to the doubles decider with a comfortable straight-sets win over Lorenzo Musetti. The 22-year-old then came in for Shapovalov in the doubles to partner Davis Cup stalwart Vasek Pospisil against an unfamiliar pairing of Fabio Fognini and Matteo Berrettini, the latter of whom had not played since late October. Canada have twice had to rely on Pospisil plus one of Shapovalov or Auger-Aliassime in the doubles to reach their second ever Davis Cup Finals. The nation lost their first to Spain back in 2019.

Australia are through to their first Davis Cup Final in 19 years after a heroic display from doubles pairing of Max Purcell and Jordan Thompson. Captain Lleyton Hewitt’s decision to bring in Thompson as a late entrant at the start of the week has paid off and then some after the Aussie first beat Tallon Grieskpoor to aid them to a 2-0 win over the Netherlands and then partnered up with Purcell to oust perhaps the best doubles team in the business in Croatia’s Mate Pavic and Nikola Mektic. Thanasi Kokkinakis was ultimately outplayed in the opening match but world number 24 De Minaur returned the favour against a poor Marin Cilic in a straight-sets romp.

THE PREDICTION

With hosts Spain and tournament favourites Croatia both missing from the final this looks a surprising, joyous Davis Cup title for either of Australia or Canada. Australia have the second-most Davis Cup titles of any nation (28) but there last came back in 2003, where Lleyton Hewitt led the line as passionately as he now captains the side. Canada are seeking their first ever title after finishing runner-up to Spain back in 2019, sealed when Rafael Nadal beat Denis Shapovalov after Felix Auger-Aliassime lost to Roberto Bautista Agut.

Three years on, Canada’s young stars have swapped places in the rankings and, seemingly, in maturity in terms of tour experience. Felix Auger-Aliassime comes into this final at a career-high ATP world ranking of sixth after claiming his first four ATP titles in 2022 whilst world number 18 Denis Shapovalov has lost each of his last five finals on tour. Shapovalov has lost both of his singles matches this week in Malaga, to Jan-Lennard Struff and Lorenzo Sonego, to suggest he could come unstuck once again in a first tour meeting with (most likely) Jordan Thompson. The 23-year-old will be desperate to deliver here, though, and backing him to edge the opener remains the sensible move.

The first option match looks the most contestable in this final, with world number 24 Alex de Minaur no doubt seeing this as the biggest day of his young career. The Aussie is Lleyton Hewitt’s ace in the hole at the Davis Cup as a consistent high-performer internationally, with victories this week over Marin Cilic and Botic van de Zandschulp impressing. Both first options have won two of two matches so far but Auger-Aliassime beat De Minaur in straight sets at the Cincinnati Masters back in August – their only tour meeting to date.

Much of this match rests on the singles matches, particularly Denis Shapovalov and Jordan Thompson’s as the winner will set the tone for the day. De Minaur and Auger-Aliassime are both likelier to win their encounter if their nation is 0-1 down, so assuming this is the case the doubles decider should come into play. Canada will struggle, there, not to drop consummate performer Vasek Pospisil to field their two top stars and that could prove the difference if Auger-Aliassime and Shapovalov fail to click. Canada, however, possess better options in the doubles and that makes taking them to edge to a first Davis Cup title look the sensible way to lean in this likely thrilling day of tennis.

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