September 15, 2023 1:16 PM
Ewan Lavender

MMA Preview – Alexa Grasso vs Valentina Shevchenko 2 at UFC Fight Night 227

Click here for today’s sports betting tips from our expert analysts!


When is UFC Noche? Sunday 17th September, 2023 - 01:00 start (UK)

Where is UFC Noche? T-Mobile Arena, Paradise, Nevada (US)

Where can I get tickets for UFC Noche? Click here to buy tickets for UFC Fight Night

What channel is UFC Noche on? TNT Sports 1

Where can I stream UFC Noche? TNT Sports subscribers can stream the fight online via the TNT Sports website and Discovery+

For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!


Alexa Grasso (16-3) shocked the world back in March at UFC 285 by dethroning the flyweight Queen and one of best female Mixed Martial Artists of all time. She went into that fight riding a four-fight win streak with her unanimous decision over Viviane Araujo (2022) sealing the title shot. She went in as the inevitable underdog and put on the best performance of her career handing the imperious champion her first submission loss coming in the fourth round.

Valentina Shevchenko (23-4) made seven defences of her crown before that fight and was barely troubled. Taila Santos (2022) in her fight prior was the only fighter that gave her problems and scraped by in a split decision. That extended her unbeaten flyweight streak to nine and now she is tasked with challenging for the strap against the nations favourite on Mexican Independence Day.


The question is whether the torch has been passed or whether that was just a blip for Shevchenko. Grasso is certainly a worthy champion, and this is the real test for the former champion to see how she responds to true adversity.

There will be no questions about her motivation now, but she will need answers for Grasso’s problems. Grasso is also an excellent counter striker and her strengths lie in her boxing and movement. Shevchenko needs to handle getting hit in the face and trade with someone who can match her speed and timing.

Shevchenko’s answer in their first fight was to take Grasso down and enforce her technique and power advantage. She ended up making a fatal error with her spinning kick leading to Grasso taking her back and choking her out. She most likely underestimated the Mexican’s submission skills, but do not be surprised if she calls upon her grappling again.

Considering how Grasso continues to improve in each fight, we can see her providing more problems and her confidence can help her win the striking exchanges. That said, we feel Shevchenko will tighten up her defence and have more composure on the night.

After Shevchenko got out wrestled by Jennifer Maia for a small portion of their fight and then proceed to make a point out of mauling Jessica Andrade with her grappling, we can see her put on a surgical performance with extra motivation here. We are backing her for revenge, but the odds make Grasso the smart play.

Prediction: Shevchenko via Submission

Value bet: Grasso to win

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