UFC Fight Night 261: Vicente Luque vs Joel Alvarez Preview & Prediction
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Joel Alvarez makes his welterweight debut as he takes on Vicente Luque in a violent clash high up the main card of UFC Rio.
Vicente Luque vs Joel Alvarez facts
What time are Vicente Luque and Joel Alvarez expected to walk out?
Where is UFC Fight Night 261: Oliveira vs Gamrot? Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night 261: Oliveira vs Gamrot? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC Fight Night 261: Oliveira vs Gamrot
What TV channel is UFC Fight Night 261: Oliveira vs Gamrot on? UK – TNT Sports / USA – ESPN+
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 261: Oliveira vs Gamrot? UK – TNT Sports subscribers can stream the event online via the TNT Sports website and discovery+ / USA – ESPN+ & UFC Fight Pass
UFC Fight Night 261: Oliveira vs Gamrot main card
Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot (Lightweight)
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Montel Jackson (Bantamweight)
Vicente Luque vs Joel Alvarez (Welterweight)
Jhonata Diniz vs Mario Pinto (Heavyweight)
Ricardo Ramos vs Kaan Ofli (Featherweight)
Lucas Almeida vs Michael Aswell (Featherweight)
UFC Fight Night 261: Oliveira vs Gamrot prelims
Jafel Filho vs Clayton Carpenter (Flyweight)
Vitor Petrino vs Thomas Petersen (Heavyweight)
Beatriz Mesquita vs Irina Alekseeva (Women’s Bantamweight)
Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll (Flyweight)
Julia Polastri vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz (Women’s Strawweight)
Luan Lacerda vs Saimon Oliveira (Bantamweight)
Vicente Luque: The Silent Assassin
Brazil’s Vicente Luque (23-11-1), nicknamed The Silent Assassin, returns to the Octagon at 33 years old as one of the most experienced welterweights on the roster. With a 16-7 UFC record and nearly half of his wins coming by knockout, he has long been known as a dangerous finisher. Luque has faced a who’s who of opponents, boasting victories over former champions Belal Muhammad, Tyron Woodley and Rafael dos Anjos.
Recently, though, Luque has shown signs of decline. He lost his last fight to Kevin Holland via anaconda choke in June 2025, after previously submitting Temba Gurimba in the opening round with the same choke in the fight before. Once celebrated for his knockout power and slick chokes, especially the D’Arce, his durability has faded, and he has become increasingly vulnerable to both KO/TKO and submissions.
Joel Alvarez: El Fenomeno
Spain’s Joel Alvarez (22-3), known as El Fenomeno, arrives at 32 years old, making his welterweight debut. He holds a 7-2 UFC record, with 77% of his career wins by submission, and is currently riding a three-fight winning streak. After a setback against elite contender Arman Tsarukyan, Alvarez rebounded impressively, submitting Marc Diakiese with a D’Arce choke, before stopping Elves Brener and Drakkar Klose with strikes.
Alvarez is a dangerous submission artist with excellent striking, particularly in the clinch where his knees are a major weapon. His only real weakness has been wrestling, exposed against Tsarukyan, but elsewhere he is a threat everywhere and remains a fresh, dynamic fighter.
Vicente Luque vs Joel Alvarez prediction
This fight promises violence, as both men are finishers who rarely leave it to the judges. Luque brings veteran experience and a proven record against top opposition, but he has absorbed immense damage over the years, often trading recklessly in wars that have clearly taken a toll. His chin and submission defence have both looked compromised, and his recent loss to Holland highlighted that decline.
Alvarez, by contrast, is on an upward trajectory. Younger, fresher and technically sharp, he combines lethal submissions with crisp clinch striking. While his wrestling can be exploited, Luque is unlikely to pursue a grinding approach, preferring instead to engage in exchanges where Alvarez’s finishing instincts shine. With 77% of his career wins coming by submission, and Luque’s vulnerability to chokes increasing, Alvarez will almost certainly look to capitalise on the ground.
Expect fireworks early, but the fresher fighter should take over as the damage accumulates. Whether by catching a submission or overwhelming with strikes, Alvarez looks the more dangerous man at this stage.
Prediction: Joel Alvarez to win inside the distance
