UFC Fight Night 261: Julia Polastri vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz Preview & Prediction
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Generations collide as Julia Polastri faces Karolina Kowalkiewicz in the strawweight division.
Julia Polastri vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz facts
What time are Julia Polastri and Karolina Kowalkiewicz expected to walk out?
Where is UFC Fight Night 261: Oliveira vs Gamrot? Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night 261: Oliveira vs Gamrot? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC Fight Night 261: Oliveira vs Gamrot
What TV channel is UFC Fight Night 261: Oliveira vs Gamrot on? UK – TNT Sports / USA – ESPN+
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 261: Oliveira vs Gamrot? UK – TNT Sports subscribers can stream the event online via the TNT Sports website and discovery+ / USA – ESPN+ & UFC Fight Pass
UFC Fight Night 261: Oliveira vs Gamrot main card
Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot (Lightweight)
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Montel Jackson (Bantamweight)
Vicente Luque vs Joel Alvarez (Welterweight)
Jhonata Diniz vs Mario Pinto (Heavyweight)
Ricardo Ramos vs Kaan Ofli (Featherweight)
Lucas Almeida vs Michael Aswell (Featherweight)
UFC Fight Night 261: Oliveira vs Gamrot prelims
Jafel Filho vs Clayton Carpenter (Flyweight)
Vitor Petrino vs Thomas Petersen (Heavyweight)
Beatriz Mesquita vs Irina Alekseeva (Women’s Bantamweight)
Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll (Flyweight)
Julia Polastri vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz (Women’s Strawweight)
Luan Lacerda vs Saimon Oliveira (Bantamweight)
Julia Polastri: Durable contender looking to rise
Julia Polastri (13-5) returns to the Octagon at 27 years old, aiming to establish consistency in the UFC after a 1-2 start in the promotion. The Brazilian is coming off a tough unanimous decision loss to Lupita Godinez, currently ranked sixth, but showed admirable grit by pressing forward and walking down her opponent in the final round. Prior to that, she edged Cory McKenna by split decision, proving she has the composure to come through in close contests.
Polastri has built her reputation on toughness. She is extremely durable, possesses a reliable chin, and rarely shies away from exchanges. With a background in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, she is always a submission threat, but it is her forward-pressure boxing and ability to make fights gritty that stand out most in her performances.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz: Veteran of the sport
Karolina Kowalkiewicz (16-9) is one of the pioneers of women’s MMA, now 39 years old with a 9-9 UFC record. A former title challenger, she famously defeated future champion Rose Namajunas by split decision in 2016 before challenging Joanna Jędrzejczyk for the strawweight crown later that year.
Although she strung together a four-fight winning streak between 2021 and 2023, Kowalkiewicz has since dropped back-to-back unanimous decisions to Denise Gomes and Iasmin Lucindo. The Polish veteran remains a steady, well-rounded competitor with sharp kickboxing, but she tends to go the distance and is clearly operating past her athletic prime.
Julia Polastri vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz prediction
This contest is a classic “youth versus experience” encounter. Kowalkiewicz, a respected veteran, brings composure and technical fundamentals refined over nearly a decade in the UFC. At 39, her pace has diminished, but her defensive awareness and tactical nous still make her awkward to overwhelm. She has long been one of the division’s most durable fighters, and her kickboxing remains polished enough to punish any lapses in judgement.
Polastri, by contrast, is 12 years younger, hungrier, and physically fresher. Her showing against Lupita Godinez, despite the defeat, underlined her durability, relentless pressure, and willingness to keep fighting regardless of the circumstances. Judges often favour forward momentum and volume, which plays into her strengths. In addition, her improving boxing and grappling threats provide multiple paths to score.
The danger for Polastri lies in overcommitting and leaving herself open to the veteran’s counters. Yet across three rounds, her pace, energy, and ability to dictate the tempo should outweigh Kowalkiewicz’s more measured approach. Expect the fight to reach the scorecards, but the Brazilian’s youth and output give her the edge.
Prediction: Julia Polastri to win via decision
