UFC 326: Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay Preview & Prediction
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Contender Series veterans clash at light heavyweight, as Rafael Tobias makes the walk to face Diyar Nurgozhay at 205 pounds.
Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay facts
What time are Rafael Tobias and Diyar Nurgozhay expected to walk out?[time2zone field="eventStartDate"]
Where is UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2? T-Mobile Arena, Paradise, USA
Where can I get tickets for UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC 326
What TV channel is UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2 on? UK – TNT Sports / USA – Not televised
Where can I stream UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2? UK – TNT Sports can stream the event online via the TNT Sports website and discovery+ / USA – Paramount+ & UFC Fight Pass
UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2 main card
Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira (Lightweight)
Caio Borralho vs Reinier de Ridder (Middleweight)
Rob Font vs Raul Rosas Jr. (Bantamweight)
Drew Dober vs Michael Johnson (Lightweight)
Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight)
UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira 2 prelims
Cody Garbrandt vs Xiao Long (Bantamweight)
Donte Johnson vs Cody Brundage (Middleweight)
Ricky Turcios vs Alberto Montes (Featherweight)
Cody Durden vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (Flyweight)
Su Mudaerji vs Jesus Santos Aguilar (Flyweight)
Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay (Light Heavyweight)
Lee Jeong-yeong vs Gaston Bolanos (Featherweight)
Luke Fernandez vs Rodolfo Bellato (Light Heavyweight)
Rafael Tobias: "Bipolar" makes his UFC debut after securing a contract on the Contender Series in September
Punching his ticket to the UFC with a first round rear naked choke victory over Jair de Oliveira on the Contender Series, Rafael Tobias (14-1) looks to produce an impressive debut on Saturday night. A BJJ brown belt, the Brazilian has scored eleven stoppages in fourteen professional wins to rubber stamp his status as a prolific fight finisher. However, the 22 year old Chute Box Monstro representative is entirely unproven at the highest level of MMA; prior to his win on the Contender Series, Tobias' sole step up in competition saw him brutally KO'd by Miguel Porto under the LFA banner.
Diyar Nurgozhay: Can the Kazakh fighter turn his fortunes around after a dismal start to life in the UFC?
Earning his UFC contract courtesy of a brutal head kick win on the Contender Series back in 2024, it's been a rough run of form for Diyar Nurgozhay (10-2) since joining the promotion. The Kazakh prospect missed weight for his debut and coughed up his "0" via submission to Brendson Ribeiro, before getting tapped with an Ezekiel choke from Uran Satybaldiev in his sophomore appearance. Despite arriving in the UFC as an undefeated prospect with an 80% finishing rate, Nurgozhay could conceivably be fighting for his job in what will be just his third appearance with the promotion.
Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay prediction
An athletic light heavyweight with an 80% finishing rate, Tobias looks like an impressive prospect on paper. However, a closer look at his record reveals that he’s primarily operated as a can crusher since turning pro back in 2022. He took on three debutants in his first five fights and has largely only fought on low level regional shows outside of his devastating KO loss in LFA.
However, Nurgozhay doesn’t look to be much better. The Kazakh prospect clearly has power, but he’s looked lost on the feet throughout his UFC career thus far, fighting with his hands down and his chin straight up in the air. He’s has fought similar levels of competition to Tobias prior to joining the UFC and he’s been absolutely destroyed in both of his bouts with the promotion to date. Tobias may not be an elite prospect but he’s proven to be a consistent submission threat throughout his career; a concerning sign given that both of Nurgozhay’s losses have come by way of tap out.
Tobias has been flatlined before and Nurgozhay could conceivably land something murderous to score the upset. However, “Bipolar’s” edge in youth, athleticism, and overall momentum coupled with the Kazakh’s shortcomings on the ground means that he more than justifies his tag as the favorite heading into this one.
Prediction: Rafael Tobias to win by submission
