UFC 321: Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista Preview & Prediction
Click here for today’s sports betting tips from our expert analysts!
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista set for high-stakes bantamweight bout on the UFC 321 main card.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista facts
What time are Umar Nurmagomedov and Mario Bautista expected to walk out?
Where is UFC 321? Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi, UAE
Where can I get tickets for UFC 321? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC 321
What TV channel is UFC 321 on? UK – TNT Sports / USA – ESPN+
Where can I stream UFC 321? UK – TNT Sports subscribers can stream the event online via the TNT Sports website and discovery+ / USA – ESPN+ & UFC Fight Pass
UFC 321 main card
Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane (Heavyweight)
Virna Jandiroba vs Mackenzie Dern (Women’s Strawweight)
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista (Bantamweight)
Alexander Volkov vs Jailton Almeida (Heavyweight)
Aleksandar Rakic vs Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight)
UFC 321 prelims
Nasrat Haqparast vs Quillan Salkilld (Lightweight
Ikram Aliskerov vs Park Jun-yong (Middlweight)
L'udovit Klein vs Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight)
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs Matheus Camilo (Lightweight)
Valter Walker vs Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight)
Nathaniel Wood vs Jose Miguel Delgado (Featherweight)
Hamdy Abdelwahab vs Chris Barnett (Heavyweight)
Azat Maksum vs Mitch Raposo (Flyweight)
Jaqueline Amorim vs Mizuki Inoue (Women’s Strawweight)
Umar Nurmagomedov: The Dagestani prodigy chasing redemption
Umar Nurmagomedov (18-1) returns to action at UFC 321 looking to reassert his dominance and rebuild toward another title shot. Ranked #2 in the bantamweight division, the 29-year-old Dagestani standout suffered the first defeat of his career earlier this year when he fell short against champion Merab Dvalishvili. Despite losing a unanimous decision, Umar’s stock didn’t drop — he was the first man in years to push the relentless Georgian to such a competitive, tactical contest.
Prior to that, Umar showcased his brilliance in a dominant win over Cory Sandhagen, currently ranked #4, where his elite wrestling and control made the fight look one-sided. A product of the Nurmagomedov lineage, Umar combines the suffocating grappling typical of Dagestani fighters with fluid, versatile striking. His ability to mix sharp kicks with seamless takedowns makes him one of the most complete and unpredictable fighters in the division. Training under Javier Mendez and guided by Khabib Nurmagomedov, Umar continues to evolve into a complete mixed martial artist.
Mario Bautista: The dark horse looking to shock the elite
Mario Bautista (16-2) enters this bout on an impressive eight-fight winning streak, ranked #9 at bantamweight and brimming with confidence after a breakout year. The 32-year-old American fights out of The MMA Lab in Arizona and has steadily climbed the ladder, developing a reputation for his technical precision and solid pace.
Bautista’s recent run has been his most impressive yet. He holds statement wins over Jose Aldo and Ricky Simon, before outclassing former Bellator champion Patchy Mix in June 2025 — a performance that firmly established him as a legitimate top-10 contender. Known for his high-volume striking and intelligent pressure, Bautista maintains an efficient 15-minute pace and mixes in well-timed grappling when necessary. However, this contest marks a huge leap in competition, as he faces one of the most complete and athletic fighters in the world in Umar Nurmagomedov.
Umar Nurmagomedov vs Mario Bautista prediction
This matchup feels like a showcase of levels within the division. Bautista has earned his spot among the top 10 with consistency and work rate, but facing a fighter like Umar represents an entirely different challenge. The Dagestani contender is faster, more dynamic, and tactically superior across every range.
Bautista’s durability should allow him to remain competitive early, but Nurmagomedov’s control, transitions, and fight IQ are likely to dictate the pace. Expect Umar to use his trademark variety of kicks and feints to manage distance before timing level changes and dominating grappling exchanges. His pressure, cardio, and ability to neutralise opponents mirror the approach that saw him control Cory Sandhagen for three rounds.
With his elite training team and hunger to reclaim a title shot, Umar should deliver a composed, dominant performance to remind the division why he’s still one of its most dangerous forces.
Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov to win via decision
