Previews, Picks & Props for UFC 327: Prochazka vs Ulberg
Your weekly breakdown of the sharpest bets inside the octagon. We dig into the film, dissect the matchups, and find angles that the oddsmakers miss – so you don’t have to.
Each week, we bring you the following 3 types of picks:
Betting Locks – Our highest confidence picks of the week. Strong foundations for your accumulators.
Value Picks – Positive expected value bets where the odds don’t exactly reflect reality. These are the spots where the bookmakers have it wrong and the price is too good to ignore.
Longshots – Underdog picks with big payouts, but genuine paths to victory. High risk, high reward, but never without reason.
On this week’s edition of The Octagon Edge:
Betting locks
Mateusz Gamrot vs Esteban Ribovics
Mateusz Gamrot to win
Gamrot has shared the cage with the elite of the lightweight division – Oliveira, Hooker, Fiziev, Tsarukyan. That level of experience simply dwarfs anything Ribovics has faced, and this is comfortably the biggest fight of the Argentinian’s career. While Ribovics is dangerous on the feet, he’s been taken down before, Gamrot’s relentless wrestling should be too much.
Curtis Blaydes vs Josh Hokit
Curtis Blaydes to win
The heavyweight division is so thin that Hokit has landed a top 5 opponent off the back of just two UFC wins, none of them against ranked opposition. While Hokit looks to be a promising prospect, it’s simply too soon. We’ve seen Blaydes compose himself against a better wrestler in Jailton Almeida – he weathered the storm in the first round before coming back to finish him in the second. Hokit fights at a frantic pace early but we’ve not seen his cardio truly tested. Expect Blaydes to survive the opening onslaught and take over from there.
Value picks
Mateusz Gamrot to win by decision – (2.0) / (1/1) / (+100)
Evens on Gamrot winning by decision feels generous. The bookmakers are pricing this at a 50/50 chance, but the reality is higher. Gamrot isn’t known for his finishing ability – outside an injury stoppage over Fiziev, he hasn’t recorded a finish in five years. If he gets the win here, it’s almost certainly via the scorecards, grinding Ribovics down with his wrestling and accumulating control time.
Reyes vs Walker to end by KO/TKO – (1.4) / (2/5) / (-250)
The odds may not scream value at first glance, but there’s still juice to be squeezed here. The implied probability sits at around 71%, but with two of the most fragile chins in the division sharing the cage, the real number should be higher. It only takes one clean shot from either side for the lights to be switched off. The value isn’t huge, but it’s a solid leg to stack onto your accumulators if you don’t know which fighter to lean on.
Patricio Pitbull to win – (3.50) / (5/2) / (+250)
The bookmakers appear to have this one wrong. Pico's hype and youth have inflated his odds, but when you strip it back, who has he actually beaten at UFC level that warrants making Pitbull such a significant underdog? The answer is nobody. Pitbull is a former Bellator champion with a resume better than Pico’s, and he’s got the chin and experience to survive Pico’s output and power. This fight should be closer to even odds. There’s no way Pico should be this big a favourite, at 3.50, Pitbull offers serious value.
Paulo Costa to win – (2.75) / (7/4) / (+175)
Even though our analysis leans towards Murzakanov, this is another fight that should be closer to even odds, and the price on Costa is too good to ignore. The fighters Murzakanov has knocked out haven’t had the best chins, whereas Costa does, and moving up a weight class only strengthens that durability. Too many opponents try to outbox Murzakanov, which is clearly his game. Costa brings something different – a nasty kicking arsenal, particularly to the body, that can break Azamat’s rhythm. He’s also the bigger man, so landing those kicks shouldn’t be an issue once he settles into the fight. At 2.75, this is a value play worth taking.
Longshots
Curtis Blaydes to win by KO/TKO in round 2 – (10.0) / (9/1) / (+900) OR round 3 – (15.0) / (14/1) / (+1400)
Two longshots in one here. Blaydes is the smarter fighter and he knows it – expect him to fight defensively in the first round, letting Hokit apply all the pressure as he usually does, defending the takedowns and clinching up on the fence. As soon as that bell rings to end round one, the fight changes. A gassed heavyweight can be vulnerable, and we’ve never seen Hokit’s cardio truly tested. This is where Blaydes takes over with his cleaner boxing, shucking off any takedown attempts with ease and starting to land heavy. A second or third round stoppage from Blaydes is a very real scenario at very generous prices.
Paulo Costa to win by KO/TKO in round 3 – (19.0) / (18/1) / (+1800)
We’ve seen Murzakanov slow down in the later rounds during point battles, and Costa has the chin to survive the early power from the soviet boxer, which means this fight should get into the second half. Costa is moving up a division carrying the speed and skill of a lighter man, and if he invests to the body throughout the fight, which he’s shown in his previous fight with those vicious body kicks against Roman Kopylov, we could see Murzakanov really start to wilt by the third round. A slowing Azamat eating heavy body shots from a bigger, fresher Costa is a recipe for a late stoppage. At 19.0 odds you’re getting paid handsomely for a scenario that isn’t out of the realm of possibility.
All odds taken from oddschecker
