November 29, 2022 11:47 AM
The Stats Zone

2022 FIFA World Cup – Group Stage Permutations

The 2022 FIFA World Cup is entering its final round of group stage fixtures and with that in mind, we take a look at all the permutations regarding knockout qualification for each country.

GROUP A

Here are the permutations for Group A in the third and final round of matches.

Netherlands – Will qualify for the knockout stage if they avoid defeat against Qatar. Will finish top of Group A if they beat Qatar and Ecuador fail to beat Senegal by a bigger margin.

Ecuador – Will qualify for the knockout stage if they avoid defeat against Senegal. Will finish top of Group A if they better Netherlands’ result over Qatar.

Senegal – Will qualify for the knockout stage if they beat Ecuador. Will finish top of Group A if they beat Ecuador and Netherlands fail to beat Qatar.

Tuesday 29th November

Ecuador vs Senegal (15:00)

Netherlands vs Qatar (15:00)

GROUP B

Here are the permutations for Group B in the third and final round of matches.

England – Will qualify for the knockout stage if they avoid defeat against Wales by a margin of four goals or more and United States fail to defeat Iran. Will finish top of Group B if they beat Wales, or draw and either Iran fail to beat United States or United States fail to beat Iran by a margin of five goals or more.

Iran – Will qualify for the knockout stage if they beat United States, or draw and Wales fail to beat England. Will finish top of Group B if they beat United States and England fail to beat Wales.

United States – Will qualify for the knockout stage if they beat Iran. Will finish top of Group B if they beat Iran and England lose to Wales, but will need to beat Iran by a margin of five goals or more should England draw against Wales.

Wales – Will qualify for the knockout stage if they beat England and Iran vs United States finishes a draw. Will also qualify if they beat England by a margin of four goals or more, regardless of the outcome between Iran and United States.

Tuesday 29th November

Wales vs England (19:00)

Iran vs United States (19:00)

GROUP C

With that in mind, are the permutations for Group C in the third and final round of matches.

Poland – Will qualify for the knockout stage if they avoid defeat against Argentina. Will finish top of Group C if they beat Argentina, or draw and Saudi Arabia fail to beat Mexico.

Argentina – Will qualify for the knockout stage if they beat Poland, or draw and Saudi Arabia fail to beat Mexico, provided Mexico don’t win by a margin of at least four goals. Will finish top of Group C if they beat Poland, provided Saudi Arabia do not better their result by a margin of at least two goals.

Saudi Arabia – Will qualify for the knockout stage if they beat Mexico, or draw and Argentina lose against Poland. Will finish top of Group C if they beat Mexico and Poland vs Argentina finishes a draw.

Mexico – Will qualify for the knockout stage if they beat Saudi Arabia and Argentina lose against Poland. Should Poland vs Argentina finish a draw, then Mexico will need to beat Saudi Arabia by a margin of at least four goals. Should Argentina beat Poland, then Mexico will need to beat Saudi Arabia and hope that the two results combined, overturns a four-goal-swing between them and Poland in goal difference.

Wednesday 30th November

Poland vs Argentina (19:00)

Saudi Arabia vs Mexico (19:00)

GROUP D

These are the permutations for Group D in the third and final round of matches.

France – Will finish top of Group D if they avoid defeat against Tunisia. If they lose, only Australia can overtake them. However, the Socceroos would have to not only beat Denmark, but also effect at least a six-goal-swing in terms of goal difference between them and France.

Australia – Will qualify for the knockout stage if they beat Denmark. Will also qualify if they draw and Tunisia fail to beat France. Will finish top of Group D if they beat Denmark and France lose against Tunisia, but would need to overturn a six-goal deficit in goal difference across the two fixtures.

Denmark – Will qualify for the knockout stage if they beat Australia, provided Tunisia do not beat France by a bigger margin.

Tunisia – Will qualify for the knockout stage if they beat France and either Australia vs Denmark finishes a draw, or Denmark fail to at least match Tunisia’s margin of victory over France.

Wednesday 30th November

Tunisia vs France (15:00)

Australia vs Denmark (15:00)

GROUP E

Here are the permutations for Group E in the third and final round of matches.

Spain – Will qualify for the Round of 16 with a win or a draw. Defeat to Japan will see their fate determined by goal difference, although they will be knocked out if Costa Rica also beat Germany.

Japan – Can qualify with victory against Spain, while a draw, coupled with a draw in the Costa Rica v Germany clash, will ensure they progress. They will be eliminated if they are beaten by Spain, or if the match ends in a draw and Costa Rica defeat Germany. Goal difference will be required to decide their fate if they draw and Germany beat Costa Rica.

Costa Rica – Can reach the Round of 16 by defeating Germany. A draw would also see them progress should a spot in the next stage if Spain beat Japan. However, if Spain are beaten, goal difference would come into play. If both group games end in a draw, or Costa Rica lose their game, they would be out.

Germany – Need a win to have a chance of progressing. A victory over Costa Rica coupled with a win for Spain versus Japan will see them advance. A draw in Japan’s game with Spain, or a win for the Japanese, would result in the group being determined by goal difference.

Thursday 1st December

Japan vs Spain (19:00)

Costa Rica vs Germany (19:00)

GROUP F

Here are the permutations for Group F in the third and final round of matches.

Croatia – Will qualify with a win or draw in the final game against Belgium. They can still advance with a loss but they would need Canada to defeat Morocco with goal difference then needing to be utilised to determine which teams progress.

Morocco – Will qualify with a win or a draw. They can still advance with a loss but they would need Belgium to defeat Croatia with goal difference then needing to be utilised to determine if they progress ahead of the Croatians.

Belgium – Will qualify with a win over Croatia. A draw could also see them advance but only if Morocco lose to Canada, in which case it would come down to goal difference between the two teams. A loss and Belgium are out regardless of the result in the other game.

Thursday 1st December

Canada vs Morocco (15:00)

Croatia vs Belgium (15:00)

GROUP G

Here are the permutations for Group G in the third and final round of matches.

Brazil – Place in the Round of 16 is already secured but will finish top of the group with a win or a draw. If they lose to Cameroon and Switzerland overcome Serbia, first place will be determined by goal difference.

Switzerland – Will qualify with a win but are out if they lost to Serbia. If they do win and Brazil lose to Cameroon, they could win the group should they have a superior goal difference than the Brazilians. If Switzerland draw their game, they will advance should Brazil win or draw in their contest. If Brazil lose and Switzerland draw, goal difference would be used to decide second place.

Serbia – Must beat Switzerland to have a chance of progressing. If they win and Cameroon beat Brazil, second place will be decided by goal difference.

Cameroon – Must beat Brazil to have a chance of progressing. If they win and Serbia beat Switzerland, second place will be decided by goal difference.

Friday 2nd December

Cameroon vs Brazil (19:00)

Serbia vs Switzerland (19:00)

GROUP H

Here are the permutations for Group H in the third and final round of matches.

Portugal – Place in the Round of 16 is already secured but will finish top of the group with a win or a draw.

Ghana – Can advance with a win over Uruguay. Should they draw and South Korea fail to beat Portugal, they would go through. If they draw and South Korea win their game, goal difference would be needed to determine which side finishes in second.

Uruguay – Must beat Ghana to have any chance of going through. Should they win and South Korea fail to defeat Portugal, they would advance to the next round.

South Korea – Must beat Portugal to have any chance of going through. If they win and Uruguay also beat Ghana, goal difference would be needed to separate the two teams and determine which side qualifies.

Friday 2nd December

South Korea vs Portugal (15:00)

Ghana vs Uruguay (15:00)

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