UFC Fight Night 263: Talita Alencar vs Ariane Carnelossi Preview & Prediction
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The first fight of the night takes place at 115 pounds, with Talita Alencar poised to take on Ariane Carnelossi at strawweight.
Talita Alencar vs Ariane Carnelossi facts
What time are Talita Alencar and Ariane Carnelossi expected to walk out?
Where is UFC Fight Night 263: Garcia vs Onama? UFC Apex, Enterprise, USA
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night 263: Garcia vs Onama? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC Fight Night 263
What TV channel is UFC Fight Night 263: Garcia vs Onama on? UK – TNT Sports / USA – ESPN+
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 263: Garcia vs Onama? UK – TNT Sports subscribers can stream the event online via the TNT Sports website and discovery+ / USA – ESPN+ & UFC Fight Pass
UFC Fight Night 263: Garcia vs Onama main card
Steve Garcia vs David Onama (Featherweight)
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs Ante Delija (Heavyweight)
Jeremiah Wells vs Themba Gorimbo (Welterweight)
Isaac Dulgarian vs Yadier del Valle (Featherweight)
Charles Radtke vs Daniel Frunza (Welterweight)
Allan Nascimento vs Cody Durden (Flyweight)
UFC Fight Night 263: Garcia vs Onama prelims
Billy Elekana vs Kevin Christian (Light Heavyweight)
Timothy Cuamba vs Lee Chang-ho (Bantamweight)
Donte Johnson vs Sedriques Dumas (Middleweight)
Ketlen Vieira vs Norma Dumont (Women’s Bantamweight)
Alice Ardelean vs Montserrat Ruiz (Women’s Strawweight)
Philip Rowe vs Ko Seok-hyun (Welterweight)
Talita Alencar vs Ariane Carnelossi (Women’s Strawweight)
Talita Alencar: Can the grappling standout put together her first run of consecutive UFC victories?
BJJ black belt and grappling standout Talita Alencar (6-1-1) arrived on DWCS with a shiny undefeated record of 4-0 in tow, fighting to an entertaining draw with Stephanie Luciano. The 35 year old "Problem Child" is 2-1 in the UFC since, posting decision wins over Rayanne dos Santos and Vanessa Demopolous either side of coughing up a decision victory and her undefeated record in a rematch with Luciano last August. Alencar has also competed on the UFC's inaugural BJJ event, losing to Cassia Moura by decision in June.
Ariane Carnelossi: What does "Sorriso" have left in the tank?
Having fought the likes of current UFC fighters Amanda Ribas and Ketlen Souza on the regional circuit, Ariane Carnelossi (15-3) has posted a 3-2 UFC run since joining the promotion in 2019. A Muay Thai striker by trade, Carnelossi has earned victories over Na Liang, Istela Nunes, and Piera Rodriguez to date, although it's worth noting that her victory over Rodriguez came via DQ. Outside of that, she's only lost to decent fighters; her three defeats have come against Angela Hill, Loopy Godinez and the aforementioned Ribas. However, Carnelossi's activity is somewhat concerning; Saturday will mark just her second appearance since 2022 on Saturday.
Talita Alencar vs Ariane Carnelossi prediction
Despite the odds leaning towards Alencar with the bookmakers, this is a legitimate "flip 'em" fight in many senses.
Carnelossi has a significant edge in MMA experience and arguably poses the more realistic chance of finishing this fight; she has two stoppage wins in the UFC already, whereas Alencar hasn't scored a finish since her second professional fight in 2022. Furthermore, "Sorriso" has only lost to solid levels of competition since joining the promotion; there's no shame in coming up short to the likes of Loopy Godinez and Angela Hill.
However, it's Carnelossi's recent schedule that likely has the oddsmakers concerned; "Sorriso" has only fought once since 2022. Her sole victory in that stretch came via DQ after Piera Rodriguez decided to spontaneously implement some Lethwei in her MMA game and landed multiple head butts on Carnelossi. She has also posted pretty dismal significant strike numbers in her last few appearances, hardly the indicator that she's primed to produce an electric rebound performance.
By contrast, Alencar's blend takedowns and high volume ground-and-pound looked excellent last time out against Vanessa Demopoulos. As such, her grappling pedigree and momentum combine to make her the safer pick here. "Sorriso" has only ever been tapped out once in three professional losses, so the pick is for Alencar to outwork her across three rounds for the decision victory.
Prediction: Talita Alencar to win
