Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues Preview & Prediction | 2025 State of Origin

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Queensland and New South Wales draw the battle lines once again in Rugby League’s greatest showpiece.

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How to watch on TV: UK – Sky Sports / Australia – Channel Nine & 9Now / US – Fox Sports

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Queensland Maroons team news

Head Coach Billy Slater has mixed the old and the new with this edition of the Queensland side. Kaylyn Ponga is the automatic choice with Reece Walsh suffering a long-term injury. Young Rooster Robert Toia debuts at centre over the veteran Dane Gagai while the forward pack contains no significant shocks. Beau Fermor is rewarded for his superb season for the Titans and will come from the bench along with regulars Lindsay Collins and Tom Dearden. Trent Loiero also gets his chance to debut after a strong season with the Melbourne Storm.

Squad: 1. Kaylyn Ponga 2. Xavier Coates 3. Robert Toia 4. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow 5. Valentine Holmes 6. Cameron Munster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans 8. Moeaki Fotuaika 9. Harry Grant 10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui 11. Reuben Cotter 12. Jeremiah Nanai 13. Patrick Carrigan 14. Tom Dearden 15. Lindsay Collins 16. Beau Fermor 17. Trent Loiero 18. Kurt Mann 19. Jesse Arthars 20. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki

New South Wales Blues team news

Head Coach Laurie Daley had problematic decisions to make on positions all over the field in the lead up to Origin I. Dylan Edwards get the nod at fullback over James Tedesco while Zac Lomax retains his position on the wing from last year’s series. Isaah Yeo will captain the side again in 2025 while Hudson Young’s fine form for the Canberra Raiders earns him a bench spot at the expense of Haumole Olakau’atu who is on the extended bench. Enforcer Payne Haas carries an injury doubt into camp and will be replaced by Stefano Utoikamanu if necessary. Max King earns a chance to debut for NSW off the back of a winning Bulldogs team and may start with Mitchell Barnett used from the bench instead. Connor Watson is the utility man on the bench which is critical when considering that Lomax, Edwards, Brian To’o and Latrell Mitchell are all recent returnees from various injuries.

Squad: 1. Dylan Edwards 2. Brian To’o 3. Stephen Crichton 4. Latrell Mitchell 5. Zac Lomax 6. Mitchell Moses 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Mitchell Barnett 9. Reece Robson 10. Payne Haas 11. Liam Martin 12. Angus Crichton 13. Isaah Yeo © 14. Connor Watson 15. Spencer Leniu 16. Hudson Young 17. Max King 18. Campbell Graham 19. Stefano Utoikamanu 20. Haumole Olakau’atu

Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues prediction

The best-of-three State of Origin series commences in Brisbane with the home side keen to grab an early advantage. Game Two will see both sides travel to Optus Stadium in Perth for a neutral venue matchup before Game Three is played in Sydney.

Much has been made over the years about eligibility and who should and should not play but that has now been placed aside. With both teams in camp for ten days and injury worries on both sides, reinforcements have been brought in to cover and what is currently shaping as the starting units for both teams may be different by the time Wednesday rolls around.

Queensland’s dominant period which stretched from 2006-2017 in which they lost just one series is well and truly in the rear-view mirror now. The NSW Blues have won four of the past seven series since, including a 2-1 triumph last year that featured a bruising 14-4 win in the decider in Brisbane.

This will be match number 29 at the new Suncorp Stadium where the Maroons have enjoyed the benefits of a raucous home crowd and enjoyed a winning advantage to date of 20-8.

The team that wins Game 1 has gone on to win the series 33 times from 43 attempts. The most recent team to buck that trend was last year when NSW lost Game One in Sydney 38-10 before going on the road to triumph.

Referee Ashley Klein will officiate his 10th straight contest. The whistle blower moves closer to the top of the list for Origin with only Bill Harrigan and Gerrard Sutton now ahead of him. In recent times Klein has let the game flow and resisted the temptation to blow an excessive amount of penalties. This has often resulted in a helter-skelter pace to games with points often coming late in matches after tense early minutes.

We think the trend of away teams sneaking away with a victory can continue in this one with New South Wales pinching a series opening win.

Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues tip: New South Wales to win & first half total points under 20.5