PSG vs Borussia Dortmund Preview & Prediction | 2023-24 UEFA Champions League | Semi-Final
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THE FACTS
When is PSG vs Borussia Dortmund on and what time does it start? PSG vs Borussia Dortmund will take place on Tuesday 7th May, 2024 – 20:00 (UK)
Where can I get tickets for PSG vs Borussia Dortmund? Visit each club’s official website for the latest ticket information
What channel is PSG vs Borussia Dortmund on in the UK? PSG vs Borussia Dortmund will be televised live on TNT Sports in the UK
Where can I stream PSG vs Borussia Dortmund in the UK? PSG vs Borussia Dortmund can be streamed live on the discovery+
THE LOWDOWN
PSG
As was the case in the quarter-finals against Barcelona, PSG will be forced to come from behind in the second-leg if they are to progress to a first Champions League final in four years. This time round however, the second-leg takes place in France, where the Parisians have already defeated Borussia Dortmund this season, back in the Champions League group stage. They won that one 2-0 and the same result here would be enough for them to advance through on aggregate in 90 minutes.
This encounter is also notable for another important reason, that it will most likely serve as star striker Kylian Mbappe’s final Champions League game at Parc des Princes as a PSG player, with the French talisman seemingly set to leave the club this summer. Mbappe was left frustrated in Dortmund, hitting the post and being denied by opposition keeper Gregor Kobel. But he stepped up when needed in Barcelona, scoring twice and it would be no surprise to see him repeat those exploits here.
BORUSSIA DORTMUND
Borussia Dortmund have given themselves an unbelievable chance to return to Wembley to compete in the Champions League final for the first time since 2013, after beating PSG by a goal to nil in the first-leg. Niclas Fullkrug, who has been outstanding as the focal point in the Dortmund attack, scored the winning goal, his third in the Champions League this season. Whilst the hosts rode their luck upon a plethora of PSG attacks, Borussia Dortmund held on to take their slender 1-0 advantage to Paris.
Unlike the French champions, Borussia Dortmund were in domestic action over the weekend, defeating Augsburg by five goals to one in the Bundesliga. However, with them guaranteed to finish no lower than fifth-place, a spot in next season’s Champions League is assured even if they fail to win the competition in 2023-24. This should prove pivotal in regards to their finances with loanees Ian Maatsen and Jadon Sancho sure to be courted by Dortmund on a permanent basis.
THE TEAM NEWS
PSG
The temptation will no doubt be for Luis Enrique to make chances after his side were shut out in Germany. Both Goncalo Ramos and Randal Kolo Muani both make big cases to be included in place of Bradley Barcola, as does Marco Asensio, who can play centrally as a false nine. Lucas Hernandez suffering a torn ACL in the first-leg not only rules him out of this game, but also the rest of the campaign. Expect Lucas Beraldo to slot in at centre-back alongside Marquinhos.
PREDICTED XI (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Hakimi, Marquinhos, Beraldo, Mendes; Zaire-Emery, Vitinha, Ruiz; Dembele, Ramos, Mbappe
UNAVAILABLE: Hernandez (Injured), Kimpembe (Injured),
QUESTIONABLE:
BORUSSIA DORTMUND
Aside from Ramy Bensebaini and Julien Duranville, Edin Terzic has a full-strength squad to choose from for the trip to Paris. It is likely that he selects the same starting line-up who came out on top in Dortmund, which would mean no place in the XI for Donyell Malen despite his goal against Augsburg at the weekend. Karim Adeyemi’s searing speed on the break could be vital for the visitors, as will the direct nature of Jadon Sancho. The experienced Marco Reus may also come off the bench and have a big part to play on the back of announcing his departure from the club come the end of the season.
PREDICTED XI (4-2-3-1): Kobel; Ryerson, Hummels, Schlotterbeck, Maatsen; Sabitzer, Can; Sancho, Brandt, Adeyemi; Fullkrug
UNAVAILABLE: Bensebaini (Injured), Duranville (Injured)
QUESTIONABLE:
THE KEY STATS
- PSG have won ten of their previous 13 UEFA competition matches at home against German teams (D1 L2).
- PSG have won their last two UEFA competition matches at home against Borussia Dortmund without conceding a goal (both 2-0).
- PSG have won six of the previous nine UEFA competition two-legged ties when they have lost the first leg away from home. Most recently, against Borussia Dortmund in the 2019-20 Champions League round of 16 when they won the second leg 2-0 after a 2-1 loss in Germany in the first leg.
- PSG have only failed to score in two of their last 38 Champions League matches at home.
- PSG have lost successive home matches in the Champions League only once. That was in the 2020/21 season they were defeated at home by Bayern in the quarter-finals and Man City in the semi-finals.
- Kylian Mbappe has scored eight goals in the Champions League this season matching his highest ever tally which he recorded in the 2020-21 season. He needs two more goals to reach the total of 50 in the Champions League (GS to F).
- Borussia Dortmund have lost only one of their last ten Champions League matches (W6 D3).
- Borussia Dortmund have kept five clean sheets in their last ten Champions League matches.
- Borussia Dortmund have won only three of their previous 12 UEFA competition matches away from home against French teams (D2 L7).
- Borussia Dortmund have scored the first goal in eight of their last nine Champions League matches.
- Borussia Dortmund have won 17 of the previous 20 UEFA two-legged ties when they have won the first leg at home. However, they have lost the on the two most recent occasions, against PSG in the 2019-20 Champions League round of 16 (2-1 h, 0-2 a) and against Chelsea in the 2022-23 Champions League round of 16 (1-0 h, 0-2 a).
THE PREDICTION
With home advantage in their favour and a home win over Borussia Dortmund already under their belts in this season’s Champions League, PSG are in a great position to do exactly what they did in the quarter-finals and overturn a one-goal aggregate deficit. They created more than enough chances to win in Dortmund and were extremely wasteful, but it’s hard to see them lacking such potency on their own ground. However, Borussia Dortmund boasts significant pace on the counter-attack and a proven goal-scorer in Fullkrug. PSG have conceded in each of their last four Champions League fixtures and it would be no surprise if the visitors were to find the net. Despite this though, back PSG to repeat their quarter-final exploits against Barcelona and secure victory in 90 minutes, although it remains to be seen as to whether they triumph by a large enough margin to qualify for the final.
TIP: PSG TO WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
