MMA Preview – Paulo Costa vs Marvin Vettori at UFC Fight Night 196
PAULO COSTA VS MARVIN VETTORI FACTS
When is UFC Fight Night 196? Saturday 23rd October, 2021 -19:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC Fight Night 196? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night 196? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC Fight Night 196 on? BT Sport 2
Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 196? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
PAULO COSTA VS MARVIN VETTORI LOWDOWN
Paulo Costa (13-1) is back after a humbling dished out by Israel Adesanya in their middleweight title fight. It was over a year ago and has since backed out of two bouts - Robert Whittaker which he withdrew due to illness and who knows why he pulled out the Jared Cannonier fight. Adesanya had his way with Costa, and it was such a masterclass in striking that it feels the Brazilian still has a lot to prove despite knocking out the likes of Johny Hendricks, Uriah Hall and going toe-to-toe with Yoel Romero winning a unanimous decision.
Marvin Vettori (17-5-1) also crashed back down to earth after a dominant loss to the champ. To add to his split decision win over Vettori back in 2018, Adesanya won a more comfortable unanimous decision in the heated rematch which snapped an impressive five-fight win streak. The streak included a submission over Karl Roberson and unanimous decisions over Jack Hermansson and Kevin Holland. The difference with Vettori however, is that he has been far more active, and this will be his fourth fight since Costa last fought.
PAULO COSTA VS MARVIN VETTORI PREDICTION
It feels like a long time since we have had a main event of this calibre. Costa is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but he will only back his striking to get the job done whereas Vettori is the one expected to initiate any grappling.
Vettori is a brilliant striker himself, but his best weapons here will be his defence and granite chin. Costa is known for his knockout power, but he is a sophisticated striker setting up his power body and head kicks with his jab and leg kicks.
These shots are extremely effective against southpaws like Vettori and Costa will be attacking his lead right leg from the bell. Vettori has great head movement, but he is going to get chopped down unless he keeps moving.
The best way to defend Costa’s offence will be to clinch up and take him down. Costa has great takedown defence, but Vettori has a much larger gas tank so needs to be persistent.
If the Italian loses patience or has the ego to stand and trade with Costa, he is going to take a lot of punishment. He if decides to wrestle and make this a boring five rounds, he can sap Costa’s energy and grind out a decision or even a late finish.
Costa has also completely botched his weight cut again and this is now at 205 lbs. Whether this will help him not having to deplete himself further or something bad has happened in camp such as an injury we do not know but while he has energy, he will be able to defend the takedowns and be a severe threat on the feet.
If this goes past three rounds, you have to back Vettori. Costa is certainly capable of pulling off an early knockout but we feel Vettori's chin will keep him in it and as long as he sticks to a game plan of grappling, he will finish stronger.
Prediction: Vettori via Decision - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Costa via KO/TKO
