MMA Preview – Gilbert Burns vs Stephen Thompson at UFC 264
GILBERT BURNS VS STEPHEN THOMPSON FACTS
When is UFC 264? Sunday 11th July, 2021 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC 264? T-Mobile Arena, Paradise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 264? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 264
What channel is UFC 264 on? BT Sport Box Office (£19.99) BT Sport 2 (prelims)
Where can I stream UFC 264? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
GILBERT BURNS VS STEPHEN THOMPSON LOWDOWN
Kamaru Usman devastated Gilbert Burns (19-4) back in February. Not just physically but mentally as he was left heartbroken in the middle of the cage. He has had some time to reflect and is back hoping to pick up where he left off before the title fight where he strung together a phenomenal six-fight streak taking the scalps of Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Mike Davis, Alexey Kunchenko, Gunnar Nelson, Demian Maia and Tyron Woodley. The jiu-jitsu ace has become a weapon in every facet of the game and now faces a completely different test to get his title hopes back on track.
After going 1-3-1 between 2016-2019, many had written Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson (16-4-1) off. He fought to a draw and lost a majority decision to a prime Tyron Woodley in his title fights, earnt a classy unanimous decision against Jorge Masvidal but then lost a unanimous decision to Darren Till which could have easily gone either way. He was then on the receiving end of a shock superman punch knockout from Anthony Pettis who stepped up a division for the fight. After that run, he then had two super tough matchups against two of the most dangerous fighters in the division but lower ranked so he had a lot to lose. However, he showed his class once again by earning two more unanimous decisions over Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal snapping their colossal win streaks.
GILBERT BURNS VS STEPHEN THOMPSON PREDICTION
Burns’s striking has come on leaps and bounds adding technique to his natural power and he was piecing Usman up on the feet. However, Usman’s jab and piston right hand broke him down until finishing him off on the ground.
Usman’s striking is effective, but it is very basic and if he can pierce the defence as easily as he did, you have to expect Wonderboy to have a field day with hist vast arsenal of punches and kicks. Burns has the power to cause a Pettis-style upset but Thompson is the most polished striker in the division and will have learnt from previous mistakes.
Expect Burns to test himself on the feet but he has to call upon his bread and butter and get his hands on Thompson. This will turn into a battle between one of the best strikers in the sport and one of the best jiu-jitsu practitioners in the sport.
Wonderboy has good takedown defence, and that karate movement allows him to bounce out of range before a finger gets put on him. He will also boast a four-inch reach advantage which will help him strike from range and prevent Burns from entering pocket where he is most dangerous.
Thompson is too illusive to get knocked out or taken down in the centre of the octagon so Burns needs to corner him against the fence and set up a clinch by bursting into range. If he can tie Thompson up, he can control him against the cage and if he can drag him onto the mat, Wonderboy will be in serious trouble.
So many outcomes are possible here but it all depends if Burns can close the distance effectively. If he can't get in the pocket or tie Wonderboy up, he will be absorbing a lot of damage from range which will test his suspect chin. Wonderboy can knock Burns out but over three rounds he will have to be more aggressive and considering the threat of the Brazilian on the feet and ground, it is likely to be a more calculated point match from the kickboxer. The only result we can not see happening is a Thompson submission.
Prediction: Thompson via Decision
Value Bet: Burns to win
