MMA Preview – Clay Guida vs Leonardo Santos at UFC on ESPN 31
CLAY GUIDA VS LEONARDO SANTOS FACTS
When is UFC on ESPN 31? Sunday 5th December, 2021 - 01:00 start (UK)
Where is UFC on ESPN 31? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Nevada (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC on ESPN 31? Click here for the latest ticket information for UFC events
What channel is UFC on ESPN 31 on? BT Sport 1
Where can I stream UFC on ESPN 31? BT Sport subscribers can stream the fight online via the BT Sport website
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
CLAY GUIDA VS LEONARDO SANTOS LOWDOWN
Clay Guida (36-21) rocks up for his 32nd UFC fight. He has nine performance bonuses in the bank but has not earnt one since 2014 putting on a ‘fight of the night’ with Tatsuya Kawajiri when he won a unanimous decision. He has inevitably had a mixed bag in recent years but has been given some good matchups with fellow veterans instead of acting as a gatekeeper for the new breed. However, he has gone 2-4 in his last 6. He got submitted by the current champ Charles Oliveira (2018), outpointed BJ Penn (2019), submitted again by Jim Miller (2019), lost a unanimous decision to Bobby Green (2020) earnt one of his own against Michael Johnson (2021) but then got handed the unbeaten Olympic wrestler Mark Madsen losing a split decision.
Leonardo Santos’ (18-4-1) 10-year unbeaten run finally came to an end in his last outing back in March. Injuries restricted him to only 14 fights including seven UFC wins in that time and despite reaching his 40’s there was a lot of anticipation for his fight Grant Dawson. After a hiatus in 2016, he was coming off a knockout over Stevie Ray (2019) and a unanimous decision over Roman Bogatov (2020). He then welcomed Dawson up to the lightweight division and it was a great fight but his cardio finally caught up on him and Dawson capitalised with some ground-and-pound in the last few seconds to separate him from consciousness.
CLAY GUIDA VS LEONARDO SANTOS PREDICTION
When you have question marks over your gas tank, Guida is not the man you want to fight. ‘The Carpenter’ can go for days and is known for his relentless pace. On the other hand, when you have 10 submissions in the loss column, a World Jiu-Jitsu Championship medallist and 4th degree black belt is not someone you want to fight either.
So, this is great matchmaking, and it will be an intriguing contest to see if Guida’s wrestling can subdue the submission threat for the first two rounds before he empties the Brazilian’s tank. We hope to see a grappling battle but do not be surprised to see their skills cancel each other out forcing portions of this fight to be played out on the feet.
What Santos has in his favour here is size with a five-inch height and reach advantage. However, he needs to get to work and put it to use quickly. If this heads towards a third round, you have to back Guida to grind out a decision with his pressure and wrestling.
That said, for the first two rounds, Santos will not be deterred by the takedown as he will hunt the neck of Guida. In between takedown attempts, Santos should also have the edge on the feet. He has the range and power advantage with a blistering 1-2. Considering Guida gets hit a lot, that combination could be key slowing Guida down and even creating a scramble for a submission.
Considering Guida is the underdog, him earning a decision is certainly your best bet, but we feel Santos’ ground skills can counter Guida’s wrestling. He has the range and power to with the battle on the feet as well but this will be a close one.
Prediction: Santos via Submission - CLICK HERE FOR PARIMATCH'S WELCOME OFFER (BET £5, GET £30 IN BONUSES!)
Value Bet: Guida via Decision
