November 17, 2023 2:27 PM
Ewan Lavender

MMA Betting Preview – Brendan Allen vs Paul Craig at UFC Fight Night 232

Click here for today’s sports betting tips from our expert analysts!


When is UFC Fight Night 232? Saturday 18th November, 2023 - 20:00 start (UK)

Where is UFC Fight Night 232? UFC APEX, Enterprise, Las Vegas (US)

Where can I get tickets for UFC Fight Night 232? Click here to buy tickets for UFC Fight Night

What channel is UFC Fight Night 232 on? TNT Sports 1

Where can I stream UFC Fight Night 232? TNT Sports subscribers can stream the fight online via the TNT Sports website and Discovery+

For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!


Brendan Allen (22-5) has been choking his way up the middleweight division after getting TKO’d by the current champ Sean Strickland (2021). He has strung together five impressive wins since including a submission over Sam Alvey (2022) before outpointing Jacob Malkoun (2022). He then went on to cinch up three more rear-naked chokes on Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts Krzysztof Jotko (2022), Andre Muniz (2023) and Bruno Silva (2023) boosting his UFC tally to 10-2.

He has now been handed another black belt in the form of Paul Craig (17-6-1). One of the most dangerous practitioners in the light heavyweight division made his successful entrance to 185 by pounding out Muniz back in July picking up a ‘Performance of the Night’ bonus in the process. That came after hitting his limit at 205 lbs losing two convincing fights prior to Volkan Oezdemir (2022) and Johnny Walker (2023).


It would be a treat to see them tangle on the mat. Their jiu-jitsu is elite with Allen doing his best work in top position whereas Craig is one of the most dangerous fighters on the roster fighting off his back.

Craig will have a slight height and reach advantage as the naturally bigger man and that range will be useful when trying to wrap up his favoured triangle choke. If they do end up on the mat, Allen’s victim sheet speaks for itself, but he cannot afford to be complacent as Craig only needs the slightest of openings.

However, we can see Allen trying to keep this on the feet. Craig is dangerous and his kicks continue to improve, but Allen is the more confident striker. He will be aware of Craig’s strengths and the smart strategy will be to keep this on the feet.

Craig is the hefty underdog, but we can see Allen underestimating his striking and getting rocked which could lead to a submission. He is worth a punt, but we are backing Allen to get the job done on the feet.

Prediction: Allen via KO/TKO

Value bet: Craig via finish

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