The PGA Championship 2016 Preview - Another First Time Winner?

The PGA Championship – golf’s final major of the season – is set to be played at Baltusrol Golf Club, New Jersey. Traditionally scheduled to be played in mid-August, the championship has been moved forward for 2016 to accommodate golf’s return to the Olympics.

The PGA was last held at Baltusrol GC in 2005 for the first time in the championships history when Phil Mickelson was victorious in his second major title. Conversely, the U.S Open has been held there on seven occasions, with the great Jack Nicklaus winning two of his four Opens, indicating the Lower Course at Baltusrol will reward premium tee to green play.

Customarily, the winners of each major championship of the season will play together for the first two rounds in the form of Masters champion Danny Willett, US Open winner Dustin Johnson and Open victor Henrik Stenson. With this year’s championships all being won by first time major winners, we take a look at how form played a role for each champion since 2005, and how the current world’s top 15 players fair on season form.

Both Keegan Bradley (2011) and Y.E. Yang (2009) were shock winners of the PGA Championship in their respective years. Bradley had not qualified for the previous three majors that season, so a play-off victory against Jason Dufner was even more surprising. Additionally, Yang only qualified for The Masters during the 2009 season where he finished a lowly 58th, and yet became the first and only player to date to take down Tiger Woods on the back nine of a major championship. Notably, Rory McIlroy had an average finish of 65th in the first three majors of the season when he won in 2012; nonetheless he was able to find the form required in one of the biggest tournaments – as so many of the greats do. Nevertheless, the remaining eight champions had all registered at least one top 10 finish in the previous three majors, suggesting season major form is a factor during the PGA Championship.

Since 2007, the WGC Bridgestone Invitational has been scheduled (excluding 2016) in between The Open and The PGA Championship and provides the world’s best players the chance to play three of the biggest tournaments of the season in a row, where form will be essential.

Tiger Woods (2007) and Rory McIlroy (2014) both won The Open and their scheduled event in between; showing that form in these two tournaments assisted in PGA success. Additionally, Padraig Harrington was likewise victorious in The Open, with all three winning back-to-back majors – suggesting Henrik Stenson has a very strong chance of winning his second major in as many weeks.

Jason Day in 2015 had two good finishes in each event, yet more significantly won the Canadian Open in between; again demonstrating the importance of form. Good play during the tournament pre-final major of the year is evident in the fact that nine of the past ten winners have finished 22nd or higher. Even surprise winners Yang and Bradley performed well, finishing 19th and 15th respectively. However, with the WGC being moved forward due to the Olympics, many of the leading world ranked players’ last event will have been The Open Championship.

The form of the world’s current top 15 players has been varied this season, with only Day, Johnson, Stenson and Garcia showing consistent form with an average finishing position of 15th or better. What's more, Stenson withdrew (WD) from the U.S. Open due to injury, making his Open Championship victory even more impressive. Both Day and Garcia have performed solidly in each major to date without ever really being in contention to win come Sunday, proposing they need to discover a gear in order to win The PGA.

Remarkably, Fowler’s average position of 57th is surprising for a player of his world ranking, but less surprising when taking into account his regular PGA Tour form over the middle part of the season. Watson, Grace, Reed and Oosthuizen all average over 40th position and have not performed in the biggest events. In addition, Mickelson also averages highly at 43rd position and missed the cut in both The Masters and U.S. Open, yet his play at The Open Championship suggests his game is exactly where it needs to be.

Spieth, McIlroy, Scott and Rose have been nothing but steady without their best stuff with the final major of the season potentially coming at the right time for them. Willett’s form since The Masters has dropped somewhat unsurprisingly with modest finishes in the other two majors, meaning a second major during 2016 is highly unlikely at this stage.

Form heading into a major is important for any player’s chances as it provides them with the confidence and self-belief required to win majors. This is apparent for each of the three major champions of the 2016 season, where average finishing position pre-major win were assessed. Each winner of the three majors in 2016 has been in form heading into their respective championship, signifying the importance of form in the heading into the biggest events.

Danny Willett was arguably a surprise winner of The Masters, however a 3rd place finish in a WGC event showed he could perform in the biggest events. In addition, a top 25 placing in a PGA Tour event is more impressive when taking into account he has no PGA Tour membership – add to this an additional top 30 only two weeks later in another WGC event shows his form and confidence was high, paving the way for his first major victory.

Dustin Johnson’s form all season had been impressive, with eight top 10s and high finishes in his previous two events pre-U.S. Open (3rd and 5th respectively). His form, therefore, provided him with the opportunity to be triumphant at Oakmont.

Henrik Stenson withdrew from the U.S. Open due to injury and yet won in his very next event on the European tour – his first International title since the 2014 DP World Tour Championship in Dubai. Henrik himself mentioned the importance of the win when lifting the Claret Jug, further emphasising the importance of form heading into major championships.

Following The Open Championship, McIlroy, Stenson, Garcia and Mickelson currently have the best form heading into the final major of the season. Naturally, with Stenson and Mickelson producing some of the highest quality of golf ever witnessed only two weeks ago, they will be firm favourites around Baltusrol. Additionally, Stenson has a very good opportunity of winning back-to-back majors as has been witnessed in recent years with McIlroy, Harrington and Woods – being in the ‘winning groove’ could make Stenson hard to beat.

Spieth’s average of 17th is more significant than it may suggest. This average is similar to Willett’s when he was victorious in The Masters, and yet Jordan’s lack of form has been well documented all year. From what he produced last year it was always going to be difficult to replicate, but on the other hand his form may be just getting to the level required to win yet another major.

With many of the big names playing back-to-back majors due to Olympic rescheduling, the Canadian Open has been overlooked even though it could play an important role in preparation for the PGA as it did last year with Jason Day. Of the world’s top 15 players, only Day and Johnson teed off last week, with Johnson again being in contention to win. His form is equal highest with McIlroy but the extra week of being in contention rather than practising could provide him with his second major of 2016.

Reigning champion Day has been quiet in this season’s majors so far, but his form is solid (average 13th) and a strong showing at the Canadian may have prepared him better for his first major defence.

The PGA Championship is renowned for being the fairest of all majors and most similar to a regular tour event in terms of course set-up. As a result, tee to green play will have the strongest influence on who is victorious.

It is evident that Scott, Johnson, McIlroy, Rose, Watson, Fowler and Stenson use their superior tee-to-green skills to overpower golf courses, which reflect in their strokes-gained and world ranking. What’s more, Day, Spieth, Oosthuizen and Reed rely more on their all-round game, especially putting, which could explain their form in the 2016 majors.

Significantly, Johnson, Stenson and Willett all rank inside the top 14 of strokes gained tee-to-green, demonstrating the importance of long game during major championships.

The last four major championships have been won by first time major winners, working in line with the shift in golf in recent years of the world’s best. If the pattern is to follow, we would have another grand-slam of first time winners for the first time since 2011 and for only the second time in the past 10 years.

Forecasted

Form is essential when winning majors for the world’s best players, and being in contention leading up to a major provides no better preparation. However, as has been seen with Bradley and Yang, the PGA Championship does throw in the odd surprise winner; nevertheless, form was still a key factor and will be again this week.

Day (2015 PGA Champion), Johnson and Stenson had been forecasted to win major championships for numerous seasons due to many a near miss and as players with all the skills and attributes required.

Sergio Garcia fits the criteria faultlessly. He won on the PGA Tour for the first time since 2012 at the AT&T Byron Nelson only three starts ago, which evidently paved the way for back-to-back top 5 finishes in The U.S. Open and Open Championship. The confidence gained from these performances put him among the best in current form, and seeing close friend Stenson finally breaking his major duck may give him that little extra belief. This season he has averaged 15th position in the majors (4th best), producing great form in the biggest championships and ranking 11th in strokes gained tee-to-green, gaining 1.3 strokes per round on the field with his world renowned ball striking skills.