Sergei Pavlovich vs Tom Aspinall Betting Preview: UFC 295
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SERGEI PAVLOVICH VS TOM ASPINALL FACTS
When is UFC 295? Saturday 11th November, 2023 - 00:00 (UK)
Where is UFC 295? Madison Square Garden, New York (US)
Where can I get tickets for UFC 295? Click here to buy tickets for UFC 295
What channel is UFC 295 on? TNT Sports 1
Where can I stream UFC 295? TNT Sports subscribers can stream the fight online via the TNT Sports website and Discovery+
For viewers in the United States, the event will be shown live on ESPN+ and you can sign up for access as part of a Disney Bundle here!
SERGEI PAVLOVICH VS TOM ASPINALL LOWDOWN
Sergei Pavlovich (18-1) was praying that he would get to strap on the gloves in New York as the back-up fighter. However, he was hoping it would have been against Jon Jones or Stipe Miocic who were originally headlining the card. Nonetheless, he fights for an interim title which is thoroughly deserved after stringing together six merciless first-round knockouts. His victim sheet has steadily improved in standard collecting the scalps of Marcelo Golm (2019), Maurice Greene (2019), Shamil Abdurakhimov (2022), Derrick Lewis (2022), Tai Tuivasa (2022) and Curtis Blaydes (2023).
Tom Aspinall (13-3) steps up on short notice to sling himself into the title picture. Besides blowing his knee out in the first 15 seconds of his fight with Blaydes (2022), he has been flawless in the UFC. He knocked out Jake Collier (2020) and Alan Baudot (2020) before submitting Andre Arlovski (2021). He then knocked out Sergey Spivak (2021) and submitted Alexander Volkov before the Blaydes fight. He returned a year later to knock Marcin Tybura (2023) out in the first round showing a remarkable recovery.
SERGEI PAVLOVICH VS TOM ASPINALL PREDICTION
It is tough to know how high Pavlovich’s ceiling is when he has only been out the first round twice in his career. Aspinall has only gone past five minutes three times, but his full arsenal of skills have been on display.
The Brit is the better all-round fighter and one of the most well-rounded heavyweights on the roster. He has better grappling especially his jiu-jitsu which is at a very high level and he is more technical on the feet. However, skills count for nothing when one of Pavlovich’s nuclear missiles connect.
Aspinall knows he has to weather the early storm and his speed and movement will make the Russian work harder to find the target. We can see a very cautious start from both fighters and Aspinall’s rapid level-change will be key to turning the tide.
That said, Pavlovich will have an uppercut waiting for him and as soon as he sees an opening, he will explode. This will drain his tank quickly and five rounds will suit Aspinall but neither of them will be thinking about a decision. We are not even sure Pavlovich is aware this can last longer than five minutes.
There is less room for error for Aspinall and Pavlovich has had a full camp. However, there is also little room for error for Pavlovich. Aspinall’s speed on the feet and his counters can switch the lights off in an instant. If he can take the Russian, down, the Brit has the skill to keep him down and find a submission.
Aspinall is the better fighter and we are backing him to find a way to win, but Pavlovich is always worth a punt when the odds are this close.
Prediction: Aspinall via Submission
Value bet: Pavlovich via KO/TKO
